Two polls – one Angus Reid, one Forum (the latter being massive) – show that the Ontario Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are stuck together like glue, though AR’s is a little lesss sticky.AR shows the race at 36% for the PCs, 32% for the OLP…
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Scott's DiaTribes: Big new Ontario poll – deadlocked.
Very interesting – the Forum Research president apparently paid for this poll out of his own pocket. It’s a massive sample that shows a deadlocked Ontario legislature if it holds to election day:
A Forum Research survey of 40,750 people — one of the largest polling samples in Canadian political history — has the two parties separated by only 107 respondents, each holding 35 per cent. (14,064 said they will vote Liberal, while 13,957 selected the Conservatives.) Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 23 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.
For those wondering, this was an IVR poll – an interactive voice response one, which […]
Continue readingImpolitical: About that poll
Big poll in the Star today. It polled a ton of respondents and has the Liberals and PCs at 35% apiece. NDP at 23%. Recent polls have been showing the race tightening so this seems to fit. Every election is unique and this one’s undercurrents are certai…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Politics, polls and personal stuff
Lots of stuff to talk about at the beginning of this week:
– The official Fall session for the federal Parliament begins today. The Conservatives and Harper will now begin the process of ending or killing everything they don’t like ideologically – which they now can do with their majority. Most governments try to create a legacy when they’re in government. Harper and his bunch will have a legacy that I predict will end up being remembered for trying to destroy everything that is Liberal or liberal oriented. It will be interesting though to see how effective the Official Opposition New Democrats (without Layton) and the Liberals (without a […]
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Angus Reid – PCs 36, OLP 32, NDP 26
Not really very different from their last poll, which was 38-31-24. However, even though it doesn’t show a drastic change like the other three (not including Abacus), it does show a tightening of the race, in practice.So, as noted, the topline numbers …
Continue readingRed Tory v.3.0.3: Till Madness Do Us Part
The other day on his “700 Hundred Club” program, Pat Robertson made a most astounding pronouncement in response to a man asking what advice he should give to a “friend” who began seeing another woman after his wife started suffering … Continue reading →
Scott's DiaTribes: When pollsters go after each other.
As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:
Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere […]
Continue readingBlunt Objects: NDP Leadership Poll
Yep.I know what you’re thinking: someone here, in Canada, had the brilliance to poll the NDP leadership race? Not only that, they did it days after Layton’s passing? Before anyone knew who the candidates were, or cared? Yep.Well, it was commissioned by…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Toronto isn’t liking Hudak right now either
Another credible pollster – Forum Research – decided to take a poll specifically in Toronto, where conservative mayor Rob Ford and federal Conservatives had major breakthroughs of seats for varying reasons. The result isn’t the same at the moment for the provincial PC’s:
The party has slipped to third place in the city, dropping 10 percentage points since June 1 to 24 per cent support. The Liberals, who hold 19 of 23 seats in Toronto, is at 39 per cent, up from 34 per cent three months ago. The NDP, which has four seats here, has leapfrogged the Tories and is at 30 per cent up from 26 per […]
Continue readingCalgaryGrit: On Top
Yes, we all had a good snicker at last week’s Decima poll which showed the Liberals 11 points up in Ontario. But lo and behold, a double dose of polls last night, both showing Dalton McGuinty back on top:Nanos (Sep 10-11, n = 507 phone)Lib 38%PC 35%N…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Nanos Poll Shows More NDP Support, But Little Real Change Overall
In fact, one could argue that Nanos is just correcting from his last poll, which gave the Liberals a small edge as the second-place party.Nevertheless, here are the topline numbers: 39.5% Con, 33.1% NDP, 20.7% Lib, 3.4% GreenNo real change outside of t…
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Harris Decima polls: NDP and Liberal cooperation – now and in 2010
The latest Harris Decima poll shows little appetite for a merger of the NDP and Liberal Party.However, this poll only shows the views of supporters of these two parties with respect to a full merger of the two parties. The total nationally is 24%…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Provincial Polling
Teddy here. I’ve complied the most recent polls I can find for all provinces and placed it on a simple grid.A note on Quebec, the new party is not polled within the 100%.
Continue readingImpolitical: Early days but good signs
A poll out tonight in the Ontario race shows a Liberal lead: A newly released Harris-Decima poll shows Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals have an 11 point lead over Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives – the first time the governing party has bested i…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: A stunner of a new Ontario poll, if accurate.
Wow:
A newly released Harris-Decima poll shows Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals have an 11 point lead over Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives – the first time the governing party has bested it’s main rival in many months.The Ontario poll has the Liberals in the lead at 43 per cent, the PC’s with 31 per cent, the NDP at 21 and the Green Party trailing with five per cent. The 43 per cent support for the Liberals, if accurate, puts the party in majority government territory.
Even though I thought Tim Hudak’s abortion stuff would not go over well in mainstream Ontario, and the Liberals have fought back against the immigrant […]
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: The Ontario election (un)officially starts today (and it’s a horserace)
I’m fairly confident in saying that other then political junkies, not a lot of attention was paid to the Ontario election campaign by potential voters in Ontario. With Labour Day come and gone and a month left until Election Day, that officially changes.
Conveniently, we have a new provincial poll out from Nanos Research, conducted on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail, showing a tighter race. When rounded, it’s basically PC’s 35, Liberals 32, and NDP 23. Comparing to the previous Nanos poll, it appears that voters aren’t too enthralled yet. The PC’s and Liberals are both down between 5-7%, while the NDP made some gains. […]
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Tories lead Ont. Libs by just 3.5% – Nanos
Though they’re both down from their last poll thanks to an NDP jump (or, possibly just a resettling, given that Nanos had them lower than other pollsters before) Nanos has the race in Ontario at just 3.5% difference between the two main parties.The num…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Poll shows Conservatives, NDP Tied – but Liberals make the most gains
At 33% each the Cons and Dips are tied, which makes it a misleading headline about how there is another “Orange Wave,” considering that it’s only a two-point bump (not the three that the site claims) from 2011. If anything, it shows that the Conservati…
Continue readingKitchener Liberals maintain lead by a five percent margin in polls over local Tories
Despite the obnoxious debt clock parked outside John Milloy’s office in my local Kitchener-center riding and despite PC Stephen Woodworth’s best efforts at convincing Kitchener residents to vote for Tim Hudak’s “changebook” agenda, Liberals…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Ontario Projections 2011
For any of those interested in the upcoming provincial election, there’s now a few sites so far that provide some pretty detailed projections based on recent polling that you should take note of, plus some others.The first, of course, is Eric Grenier a…
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