Forum Research has another poll out for the Alberta provincial scene, showing a closer race than last time, with 37% PC, 30% Wildrose, 14% ALP, and 13% NDP. Note, however, that it’s entirely within the margin of error of Forum’s last poll, not to mention the last Abingdon Research poll,
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Impolitical: Harper not in step with Canadians on OAS
This is not a well chosen headline for the report that was written: “Harper’s OAS reforms in step with public opinion: poll.” This one was a little better but still off: “Harper’s OAS reforms move in step with public opinion, government polling shows.” What the polling cited in the headlines
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Angus Reid Poll of BC: 42-28-19
As this Globe and Mail article points out (with a few inaccuracies, like 28% being the “lowest” poll number for the BC Liberals since Clark took office – that’s actually 23%), this Angus Reid poll isn’t good news for Premier Clark, who is now not only facing a vote split
Continue readingBlunt Objects: CAQ Momentum Falling?
While it’s not a totally established trend yet, it appears that the Coalition pour l’Avenir du Québec and it’s leader François Legault are facing an increasing downward trend in Quebec’s provincial polling: Three polls out in January all give he CAQ below 33% of the vote, with the Parti libéral
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Not Another Quirky Nanos Poll….
I’m getting a bit sick of these odd Nanos polls which end up dropping the NDP lower than they should be and the Liberals higher than they should be. The topline numbers are 35.7% Con, 27.6% Lib, 25.2% NDP, 5.6% Bloc, 4.5% Grn. While one could accept the Liberal result
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Western Polls Gone Wild
Three polls of the two largest Western provinces have come out this week – one for BC, two for Alberta; two done by Forum, one done by Léger – showing different fates for everyone involved right now. One poll I already covered, and then argued with David Climenhaga over. Now
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Abacus Poll: 37-28-21, and the "Bump"
Too many polls have come out this week, and I hope this will be the last one (oh, who am I kidding?). Abacus Data shows an overhyped, within-the-margin-of-error rise for the Liberals that the Globe and Mail, in all its glory, is trying to make into a big story. Meanwhile,
Continue readingImpolitical: Taking yes for an answer
A bunch of nice national headlines from the last few days. “The Bob Rae bounce: Liberals continue to gain steam.” “Tories Lead, Liberals Gain But Remain in Third Place in Canada.” “Liberals’ momentum gets boost from lacking NDP leadership.” “Federal Vote Intention Tightens.” “New poll shows NDP support plummeting in
Continue readingBlunt Objects: HD Poll: 32-29-25
This is the second poll now to show the federal Conservatives blow 35%, the other being the recent EKOS polling done last month, which had them at 31.4%. In fact, HD almost perfectly mirrors EKOS’ 31.4-29.5-24.8 result. What does this mean? Well… it does somewhat confirm EKOS. However, not since
Continue readingFar and Wide: Red Wave Envelops Canada
Well not quite, but since the name of the game in the short term is perceived viability, Liberals will take the recent spate of polling. Three polls out, all offer similar trends, Liberals will a slight uptick, NDP down, reinforcing recent narratives. Perhaps of biggest concern to the NDP, CROP
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Climenhaga’s Wrong on Forum Polls
This. This article by David Climenhaga on the recent Forum poll, who is an otherwise excellent writer out of Alberta, is another reason why I can’t read Rabble.ca for any length of time without having a meltdown. The entire premise by Climenhaga is that Forum’s two recent polls – one
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Polls: Bob Rae may be gaining support, and marijuana is popular
Those are the findings of one specific poll. First the poll #’s and the pollster’s speculation: Buoyed by high approval ratings for interim leader Bob Rae, support for the federal Liberals is on the rise, according to a new poll. The Forum Research survey found support for Rae’s Liberals at
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Two Polls, Two Minorities
Two polls have come to my attention which show that the situation federally and possibly in Quebec is further deteriorating towards minority governments and three-way races. First, in Quebec, the latest Leger Marketing poll shows that Francois Legault’s CAQ has dropped from the high 30’s to 33%, with the Parti
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Last Poll of 2011 – 36.5% Con, 28.7% NDP, 25.6% Lib
This is, of course, a lovely Nanos poll which shows the Liberals somewhat dropping from heights we shouldn’t be at in our current state to more-or-less reasonable levels, though as we’ll see, there are still some questions remaining. The topline numbers are as shown, and in terms of seats that
Continue readingRed Tory v.3.0.3: Talking to Americans
RT takes to the streets of Manhattan in their own little “Jay Walking” segment to quiz “average” Americans about the world around them… The results are predictably appalling, but before getting too smug, they likely wouldn’t be that much different if this informal survey of incurious knownothings was taken on
Continue readingRed Tory v.3.0.3: Frank Luntz: Xmas C-SPAN
Brilliantly evil wordsmith, Republican pollster and Fred Flintstone look-alike Frank Luntz holds forth on C-SPAN’s Christmas program about the current state of politics in America. (It’s kind of sad… but Frank isn’t married and says “my family is all gone now” which may account for the fact that he’s appeared
Continue readingRed Tory v.3.0.3: Great American Debate (With a Poll!)
Hard to believe that’s not necessarily an oxymoronic construction, I know, despite the terminology having been debased by countless so-called “debates” as part of the contrived circus/televised horse-race that is the primary political process in the USA. This past weekend, ABC News staged an ideological face-off, ostensibly about the proper
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Voodoo Polls Cont’d
Since last post, Abacus Data has come out with a new poll that gives the opposite of what Nik Nanos is showing, with a healthy second place position for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals. Abacus’ numbers are 40-31-18, compared to Nanos’ 35.6-27.3-28.1 the other week that I
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Gingrich & Romney: The Tale of the Intensity Chart
A very interesting chart by Gallup measures the intensity of support of Republicans of their candidates for the presidency. It takes the positives and deducts the negatives. Since July the chart has been bad news for Mitt and wonderful news for Newt: As for the rest of the motley crew
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Nanos = Voodoo Poll?
I have huge respect for Nik Nanos and his firm, but this recent poll is just a bit much, even for a die-hard Liberal: Con – 35.6% (-1.1%)Lib – 28.1% (+4.7%)NDP – 27.3% (-2.7%) So, somehow the Liberals have managed to claw their way back up to second place in
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