This is a brilliant piece of writing by Mark Brister: “National media coverage of the 2011 federal election was a failure.” Not sure if it’s getting much coverage but there’s a lot of good stuff there. If this is the runner-up for the 2012 Dalton Camp Award on links between
Continue readingTag: Polls
Scott's DiaTribes: Shifting left?
As they always say, the only poll that counts is election day, but polls are a useful barometer of how the public is feeling in a snapshot in time, and this one definitely is favoring Mulcair and the NDP: The nationwide poll suggests the New Democratic Party would form a
Continue readingCalgary Grit: The Third Way
The latest Ipsos poll paints a rather dreary picture of Liberal fortunes, with what was once the natural governing party languishing more than 15 points behind both the NDP and the Conservatives. Of course, the NDP are in their post-leadership honeymoon, the Liberals don’t have a permanent leader, and a
Continue readingThe Leadership Narrative
Way back when, a few months after the last federal election, I replied to the Susan Delacourt’s “Is the Liberal Party dead?” question, echoed ad nauseum in the nation’s press, with a warning to be wary of forcing Canadian politics to fit a certain narrative. That narrative presupposes the inevitability
Continue readingTrashy's World: The CPC is taking the NDP rise in the polls…
… quite well, I’d say… Trashy, Ottawa, Ontario
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Friday flipping
-Young Liberal Zach Paiken asserts that Canada is becoming more conservative – therefore, Liberals must follow that trend to get re-elected one day. I don’t see any polls or statistics in that story backing that claim up. Zach, if you’re not aware, has a bit of a reputation amongst some
Continue readingCuriosityCat: ‘Macho Man’ Mulcair displaces Stephen ‘The Warrior’ Harper amongst men
The NDP’s steady progress in acceptability is ongoing, and the Harper Conservatives must be wondering what on earth they can do to smear Thomas Mulcair and the socialist hordes. Despite his years of posturing with his ‘muscular foreign policy’, poor little Stevie is being displaced as the number one choice
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Lead Over The Conservatives Growing
The last 3 federal polls show the NDP consistently in the lead, ahead of the Conservatives (1 Forum and 2 Harris-Decima polls). The latest Harris-Decima poll has the NDP lead increasing. In Ontario, where the NDP will have to have major growth in order to form the next government, we
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Federal HD Poll: 34% NDP, 30% Con, 20% Lib
It’s an interesting little poll, for some reason currently lacking a proper link to its official PDF file, but Harris-Decima was nice enough to lay out the entire poll in one go here. Harris-Decima (Federal – May 10th) New Democrats: 34% (+1) – 129 seats Conservatives: 30% (=) – 110
Continue readingBlunt Objects: What Does it Mean!?
It means nothing. It’s a poll, one of many, that shows the NDP leading the Conservatives as the Cons deal with a month of bad news (F35s, economy, robocalls, you name it). Some people like to attribute it to the “growth” of higher thinking among the population, the new “movement
Continue readingCalgaryLiberal: Renewing Raj’s Contract
I’ve been thinking. I want to renew Raj’s contract–for leader of the Alberta Liberals. He has a nose for politics, knows exactly what the party needs to build in terms of organization and skill sets, and he was key to the reason why the party did so well. Rather than
Continue readingImpolitical: Harper hitting new lows
The talk of the day, the Nanos poll on leadership numbers. Nice to see Canadians seem to be factoring in the major scandals of the past month or so on F35s and Robocon and Harper’s leadership numbers, that have been his strength, are taking a hit. I say “seem to
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: Tom Mulcair And NDP In The Lead, Confidence In Harper Plummets
Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 – sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 – sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Harper and Cons reputation taking a bit of a beating – a year too late.
Two new polls out today – one from Forum Research in the Star shows the NDP ahead of the CPC by 3%.. the other by Nanos at the Globe shows the CPC ahead, but in an MOE dead heat. Pollster are going to get looked at skeptically for a bit
Continue readingWildrose Voters got Cold Feet
In the days after Alberta’s engaging general election for the 28th legislature, everyone is talking about the polls – specifically how wrong they were. And while they did not accurately predict the outcome of the election, it is hard to suggest that the methodology was wrong. The polls, regardless of method employed,
Continue readingWildrose Voters got Cold Feet
In the days after Alberta’s engaging general election for the 28th legislature, everyone is talking about the polls – specifically how wrong they were. And while they did not accurately predict the outcome of the election, it is hard to suggest that the methodology was wrong. The polls, regardless of method employed,
Continue readingWildrose Voters got Cold Feet
In the days after Alberta’s engaging general election for the 28th legislature, everyone is talking about the polls – specifically how wrong they were. And while they did not accurately predict the outcome of the election, it is hard to suggest that the methodology was wrong. The polls, regardless of method employed, were pretty consistent with each … Continue reading Wildrose Voters got Cold Feet →
Continue readingCuriosityCat: The Metamorphosis of Thomas Mulcair
Mulcair is riding high wide and handsome in Quebec, with even arch enemies now thinking he is the best PM of the choices open right now, according to threehundredandeight’s analysis of two recent polls: What is absolutely fascinating about these personal numbers is that Thomas Mulcair gets a 58% approval
Continue readingCalgaryGrit: Margin of Error
I don’t think I’ve ever followed an election where the polls were as horribly off the mark as they were in Alberta. Last May, when the media jumped on the “pollsters blew it” bandwagon for not projecting a Tory majority, most companies were still within the margin of error on
Continue readingPolitics, Re-Spun: Deconstructing the Wildrose Effect
So what happened in Alberta’s election yesterday, other than people telling pollsters that they want change, then chickening out when it came time to mark an X. The Politics, Re-spun crew deconstructs the Wildrose effect here: Are you surprised that the Wildrose Party did not win? No. Discontent polls well,
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