Tories take lead, or statistical anomaly?

The latest EKOS poll, released to the CBC, show that the Conservatives are holding a 32.4% lead, with the Liberals at 28.9%. The NDP are holding 16.6% support, while the Green Party maintains 10.7% and the Bloc are at 8.9%.

Normally, the statistics would suggest that the Conservative have a minor lead of 3-4%. However, if we take a look at the data from the past few weeks, we see that the data could be telling a different story.

The data from September 2 suggests that the Conservatives have 29.4% of the vote, while the Liberals have 29.1% of the vote. Even without the margin of error, the two parties were in a virtual tie.

The data from August 19 suggests that the Conservatives would win 32.5% of the vote, while the Liberals would win 27.9% of the vote. The 5% tory lead is barely statistically significant, and should thus be noted as relatively close to that of a tie.

Now, if we take a look at this weeks data, we see that there is perhaps another possibility. Because the difference is within the margin of error, it is fairly difficult for us to be sure that the Conservatives are in the lead. Perhaps they are, or perhaps the parties are still in a tie. The data speaks differently to each party, and is much too close to state that the Conservatives are gaining ground again.

Chart from CBC.