Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni
Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni

Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.

As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.

Update, Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:

Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
Polls in Courtney-Alberni

Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives.

Votetogether.ca is expected to make a call for strategic voting in Courney-Alberni soon.

Update. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.

Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
New poll in Courtney-Alberni

Recent posts:

For a full list of my calls, see here.

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal

Peterborough—Kawartha is a new riding made up mostly from the old riding of Peterborough.  It includes (obviously) Peterborough and its environs.

Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha
Dean Del Mastro convicted

Strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha have good reason to want to avoid vote splitting and change parties in this election.  Its Conservative MP for the last decade has been the odious Dean Del who was found guilty last year of electoral corruption and tampering wiht documents and sent to prison.

In the last election, Delmastro was elected quite easily with 47% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 32% and the NDP with 14%.

Two polls have been conducted in the riding since the writ was dropped:

Both these polls and its history suggest that strategic voters should support the Liberals.

Update.  More polls confirm the call. From wikipedia summary of local election polls:

See Votetogether.ca’s page to confirm that strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha should vote Liberal.

Some recent posts:

For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.

Votetogether.ca’s recommendations:

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