Tag: Tactical voting

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP

    A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Nanaimo-Ladysmith should vote NDP.  Here are their poll results:
    Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith
    Poll in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

    The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

    Some of their other recommendations:

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP

    The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. Some of their other recommendations: Strategic voting in Calgary Centre: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona: vote NDP Strategic

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

    Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni

    Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

    The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

    The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

    By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.

    As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.

    Update, Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Polls in Courtney-Alberni

    Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives.

    Votetogether.ca is expected to make a call for strategic voting in Courney-Alberni soon.

    Update. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.

    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    New poll in Courtney-Alberni

    Recent posts:

    For a full list of my calls, see here.

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Oshawa
    Strategic voting in Oshawa

    The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It’s boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

    The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they’d be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

    There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up.  If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.

    Some recent posts:

    For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.
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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

    Update for Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    Polls for South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
    Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay

    The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.

    If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done here), the results would be Con. 45%,  NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%.  This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired.
    A local poll conducted by Insights West (September 13) suggests that the NDP are well positioned to prevail.  It found support to be Con (33),  NDP (42), Lib.  (18),  Green (4).

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
    Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia

    As I pointed out in my post on strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough.

    Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson.  In the last election, vote splitting wasn’t a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.

    A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference.

    An Environics Poll from September 19, 2015 placed the NDP and Conservatives in a dead head: Con (37%), NDP (37%), Lib. (15%), and Green (11%).

    This suggests that to avoid vote splitting, strategic voters should support the NDP.

    Update. Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for strategic voters in Kootenay-Columbia.

    Some recent posts:

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal

    Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton
    Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton

    The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative.  Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (See a news story about this here).

    In the last election, Gordon O’Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%.  Gordon O’Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.

    A recently conducted poll suggests that this is a tight race between Conservative Walter Pamic (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.

     Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.

    Some recent posts:

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