On Thursday I answered the phone and it was you Mr Harper (well, your robot pollster lady) wondering whether I’d answer a 30 second political survey. While I can’t be certain she was calling on your behalf, the nature of her questions led me to the inevitable conclusion that I
Continue readingTag: Polls
Pushed to the Left and Loving It: Dancing Around the Polls Will Only Make You Dizzy
The news this week was of two recently published polls. One was conducted by Forum Research and the other by Mainstreet Research; with completely different results. Forum shows some drop in support for the NDP but has them forming a minority government. Mainstreet, on the other hand, shows a huge
Continue readingCuriosityCat: 2015 Election: Harper’s Conservatives down 30% in EKOS poll
The most significant statistic in the latest EKOS snapshot of Canadian politics is that the “new” Conservatives lead by PM Stephen Harper have now plunged to a level in anticipated support which is 30% below the votes they garnered in the May 2011 election: You can find the EKOS report
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Election 2015: Incredibly, 28% of Harper’s Conservative MPs are not running
The numberof non-runners is staggering: Stephen Harper is losing incumbent lawmakers at one of the highest rates in decades, and history suggests that weighs heavily on the Canadian Prime Minister’s chances of winning another term in power later this year. Of 166 Conservatives elected to the House of Commons during
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory
3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory
3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the ol…
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory
3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Election 2015 Seniors will determine who is Prime Minister of Canada come late October
Convergence Here’s one interesting finding from the June 16 Forum poll: The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (43%), the least wealthy (39%) and the wealthiest (37%), in BC (30%) and among the best educated (43%). The Liberal vote is common to older voters (45 to 54 and 65+
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: A Sleeping Ontario Awakens
EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.) Probably the most significant number
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: A Sleeping Ontario Awakens
EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.) Probably the most significant number
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: A Sleeping Ontario Awakens
EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.) Probably th…
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: Excuse me Ipsos, do you know how to count? NDP doing quite well in the West, thank you.
Today, Ipsos came out with this headline: Orange Crush is East, Not West: Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally Considering the actual poll numbers, especially when compared with the previous Ipsos polls, this is pretty misleading. It
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: Excuse me Ipsos, do you know how to count? NDP doing quite well in the West, thank you.
Today, Ipsos came out with this headline: Orange Crush is East, Not West: Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally Considering the actual poll numbers, especially when compared with the previous Ipsos polls, this is pretty misleading. It
Continue readingDriving The Porcelain Bus: Excuse me Ipsos, do you know how to count? NDP doing quite well in the West, thank you.
Today, Ipsos came out with this headline:Orange Crush is East, Not West: Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally Considering the actual poll numbers, especially when compa…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Angus Reid: Strong Support For Bill C51/Strong Support for Oversight. (Liberal position vindicated in this poll)
Given the furore over the past couple of months on social media – most of it NDP activist driven – you’d think that the entire country hated Bill C51, the new security and anti-terrorism bill – and entire sections of disaffected Liberal Party activists and voters were deserting the LPC
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Latest poll: Opposition 206 seats, Harper Conservatives 131 seats
Prime Minister Mulcair? A logjam in our politics has been broken by a string of elections over the past two years. Things that were unheard of before, now are reality. Parties that conventional wisdom assumed could not widen their base throughout the country, suddenly are sending dynasties to the trash
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.
Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Alberta election: Why is Premier Prentice losing the male vote?
Although taken on April 30, with the election on May 5, this poll shows that the surging NDP has stolen a big whack of male votes from Cowboy Jim Prentice. Is Jim Prentice being out-gunned and out-muscled by Rachel Notley? It seems so, from that poll. Note the huge gap
Continue readingCuriosityCat: UK 2015 election: Down to the wire
Talk about a nail biter! And welcome to the new land of coalition / cooperative governments ….
Continue readingCuriosityCat: 2015 election: Harper on road to minority government?
The problem? The latest compendium of polls by 308 have good news and bad news. Good news for Harper who – based on these results – would form a minority government after the 2015 election. Bad news for the Liberals, whose support is slipping. And good news for the besieged
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