With the debate over Libya taking up the time for debate, yesterday didn’t see quite as much of a range of issues discussed as some previous days. However, there’s still plenty of material worth noting from the day’s events.The Big IssueObviously, the …
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Accidental Deliberations: Parliament In Review: June 13, 2011
As I’d suspected, there looks to be plenty of material for a review post from just a day’s worth of events in the House of Commons. So here’s an inaugural daily review of what you may have missed in Ottawa yesterday – with a few themes I’ll be developi…
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Tuesday Morning Links
This and that for your Tuesday reading.- I’ll agree with Barbara Yaffe that one of the most important tasks for the Cons as a majority government will be to avoid having their heads inflated to dangerous levels. But I’m not sure how Yaffe could possibl…
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Not yet satisfied
Eric highlights Environics’ polling as to how happy supporters of various parties are with last month’s federal election results. And the findings look to bode about as well as possible for the NDP’s prospects of expanding its reach over the next few years:
Conservative supporters felt very positively about the election result – and why not. Their party won a majority. Fully 82% are quite happy.But New Democratic voters aren’t as pleased as you might expect. Their party made a historic breakthrough in Quebec, won the most seats and votes in their history, and are now the Official Opposition. But only 27% of their voters are happy with the results.Though it is somewhat surprising it is as high as it is, 13% of Liberal voters and 10% of Bloc voters feel positively about what happened on May 2nd. Thirty percent of non-voters are also pleased with the result.As for having negative feelings about the election result, only 2% of Conservative voters have some regrets. That is miniscule. Surprisingly, only 21% of non-voters feel the same way (36% are, understandably, indifferent).Despite their historic outcome, fully 42% of NDP voters feel sad or fearful about the election results. And despite being reduced to third party status, only 54% of Liberal voters feel negatively. It is a majority, but you’d expect Liberals to be a little more upset, along the lines of the 73% of Bloc voters.
Now, it’s important enough that a substantial number of NDP voters were hoping for more rather than expressing satisfaction with the party’s position. After it’s surely easier to build a movement when supporters are concerned about the direction of the country and motivated to change it, rather than seeing reason to get complacent.But the level of satisfaction with the election result among the opposition parties is especially significant when paired with the NDP’s post-election polling boost. In effect, it looks like a number of the Lib voters who already looked like promising NDP targets have already made the jump – and are apparently finding a landing pad which fits their own attitudes about the election.[Edit: fixed quote.]
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: You may not have noticed, but…
…the first vote on budgetary policy in Canada’s new Parliament took place on Wednesday, with the parties taking their positions on the Libs’ budget subamendment. And it may make for an interesting signal as to who’s willing to work together in provid…
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On destructive suggestions
Lest there be any doubt, one of the most important ways an opposition party can have influence in a majority Parliament is by choosing issues to highlight, thereby creating a perceived safe space for the governing party to act if it so chooses.Which is…
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Moved to action
It remains to be seen how far the NDP will get in pushing for all parties to engage in meaningful discussion about policy. But if you’re wondering whether there’s already evidence of progress in the first days of the new session of Parliament, look no …
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: One of these things is not like the others
One of these things just doesn’t belong. See if you can spot the difference in the following single-election results – and consider what it might mean for each party’s future strategy…
Vote Share | Seats | Provinces w Seats | Provinces under 20% | High Prov% | Low Prov% | Rebates |
30.6% | 103 | 8 | 2 | 42.9% | 15.4% | 306 | 25.5% | 66 | 5 | 5 | 58.9% | 3.9% | 182 | 30.2% | 103 | 9 | 1 | 52.5% | 15.3% | 283 | 29.6% | 99 | 8 | 1 | 61.7% | 8.8% | 251 |
For those wondering, the parties who posted those totals are respectively the NDP in 2011, the Canadian Alliance in 2000, the Libs in 2006, and the Cons in 2004. And of course, each party served as the official opposition following the listed general election.
So let’s ask the rhetorical question: is there an obvious reason why one of those parties might have had both a glaring need to pursue a merger, and an obvious opportunity in doing so?
And conversely, is there an equally obvious reason why the other three might see fit to work from an existing national base, rather than pursuing wrenching structural changes?
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On dominance
Meanwhile, the obvious potential for growth in NDP support figures to have some rather important effects on the Cons’ strategy as well. After all, their current coalition of support left them little room for error even with a split opposition – and if …
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On fading reasons
There’s plenty to catch up on in Canadian politics from the past week, and I’ll try to cover the biggest news over the next couple of days. But let’s start with one polling tidbit that looks even more important than the NDP’s improving support totals:R…
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On losing strategies
Sure, Greg is right to criticize the Libs for being willing to provoke a national unity crisis for political gain. But I’m not sure when that became reason for surprise: have we already forgotten that the party’s main Quebec strategy during its stay in…
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