Teddy here to answer a simple question: can the BC Liberals win. The answer, which might surprise some, is yes. A few things need to happen though to make this the case. 1 – The BC Liberals need to run a seamless campaign. Christy Clark’s little voting mishap effectively breaks this, and
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Blunt Objects Blog: BC Projection (Teddy)
Teddy here with a final but personal projection. The BC Liberals will finish with 23 seats. This is the core of the projection. I’ve made projections like this before for BC and both previous times they have been shockingly on the mark. What took time is trying to figure out
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Number of Candidates
Teddy here for a hat trick of posts, this time, examining the number of candidates parties run in elections. For those who have been following my tweets, you will know that 5 candidates for the BC Conservatives have somehow been excluded from the official list of BC Conservative candidates as
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Around the world
Teddy again with a quick look at politics around the world. We start today in Japan, where a summer election for the upper house is scheduled. If the polls are to be believed the ruling party, the conservative leaning LDP should be able to obtain a simple majority in the chamber.
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: More on Quebec
Teddy here with some expansion on an earlier post about Quebec. The poll taken, as outlined in that article, had Federal and Provincial questions asked. Since the poll used the same respondents, and, produced results in identical regions, we can create this data from it: I should note as a disclaimer; the QS
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Quick Reference Guide to the BC election
Teddy here with a quick reference guide to the election in British Columbia. First, some links that may be useful: Media and other Info sources:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013http://www.elections.bc.ca/ge2013/http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/http://bc.ctvnews.ca/election-2013http://www.theprovince.com/news/bc-election/index.htmlhttp://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/ Our “Competition” for BC Election Projections:http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/ (bilingual author)http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (the big one)http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ (More focus on analysis, like here at Blunt Objects)http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/ (not active this election?)http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/ (great source for maps)http://www.electionprediction.org/2013_bc/index.php (Veteran of the field)
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: "Final" turnout numbers (Updated)
Teddy here again; this time on the right day! I’ve gathered the data from the turnout results and present them to you in this table: It would seem requiring registration has ensured that most of those who put in the effort to do so will actually bother to vote. Turnout
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Liberal Leadership Vote Turnout
Teddy here. I’ve complied the data from ballots cast as of 3pm on Sunday Saturday (turns out I don’t know what day is its!) Note that while this is the official close of voting, there may be technical reasons why these are not the final results. (like me being a
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Voting is open!
Teddy here with a quick message to let you all know that voting is open for the 2013 Liberal Party of Canada leadership. The information mailer which contained the information for you to vote was incorrect on it’s list of candidates, and there are only 6, not 7. We can
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: David Bertschi still on ballot.
Teddy here. I can confirm the final ballot for the Liberal Leadership contains 7 names, and one of them is David Bertschi. Along with Cauchon, Coyne, Hall Findlay, McCrimmon, Murray and Trudeau, Bertschi is included in the official list of candidates. I know this because I’ve received my mailer, which
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Preferential Balloting and Merger
Teddy here. I was browsing around when I found out that Eric from 308 has requested and received this: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2013/03/preferential-ballot-poll.html?spref=tw data. I’ve been able to determine that the data is almost certainly from this poll: http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Political-Update_Mar-2013.pdf by Abacus. Eric’s analysis itself is interesting as to what might happen if we had a voting system
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: World Elections – Pope/Vatican
As of today, we are on our first full day without a Pope. We will need to elect a new one, and while it is officially a church election, it’s also an election for the leader of a (very small) country. The Vatican. Thus, this qualifies for another one of
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Changes in Quebec
Teddy here with some interesting information glamed from the always fun-to-analyze Vote Compass results (Quebec in this case). One question in particular caught my attention; on Independence; which suggests that things have changed quite radically from the last Referendum. If you don’t see it at first, this map may help: In short,
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: World Elections – Italy
On Monday, Italy goes to the polls to elect a new government. The results for the lower house are all but certain. The Socialist alliance will take exactly 344 seats. We know this, in part, because whichever party wins the most votes, regardless of if it’s by 1 vote of
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Chaos for the PEI PC Party
For those who have not been following news coming from the PEI Official Opposition it may surprise you to learn there is trouble. While the “problem” seems to have been solved now, the fact remains the party is divided. I believe I’ve been able to patch together what has happened though
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Historical Elections
Teddy here again with another weekly special, this time scheduled for Sundays. This will be the only time when you’ll get both a Saturday and Sunday update, as, I’ll be using this to help full out the weekend on those weeks when there is nothing to update. This series focuses
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Around the world
Teddy here, starting a weekly Saturday update of politics from around the world! First, we should look at where the next elections are. Tomorrow, there are elections in little Monaco; but I’d like to focus on some larger nations that are more crucial to world affairs. Italy is the next “big” country
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: Wynne to become Premier
It’s all over but the voting. Unless divine intervention occurs, Kathleen Wynne will be elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in 2 to 3 hours. Unfortunately, I will not be able to be around for that, as I had other plans for today, so this is the final update
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: OLP Leadership – Penultimate
The final ballot is being cast. The deadline to withdraw has passed. Kennedy went to Wynne with about 8 minutes left. Sousa has decided to join him. Wynne has a clear advantage here. Whatever the math people are trying to push on Twitter right now, the race is still undecided.
Continue readingBlunt Objects Blog: OLP Leadership – 2nd ballot
This is likely the penultimate ballot, as Kennedy and Sousa would be silly to carry on at this stage. He would need over 100% support to even edge into second. The results of the ballot are as follows:817 – Pupatello750 – Wynne285 – Kennedy203 – Sousa18 – Takhar Kennedy, if
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