Author: CuriosityCat

CuriosityCat: Election 2015: The Dramatic Tale of the Debates

Just a note for future elections: Debates count. A lot! Far more than most people realize.
And the most recent poll by Signal / Toronto Star shows that even debates designed to avoid having millions of Canadians watch them, as our recent series were, count.
Here’s a snapshot of voting preferences for the period August 30 until yesterday, with the time of each debate shown by a vertical line. In each and every area of the country, the debates moved the needle, but not to the same extent.
Let’s start with the national polls – note the takeoff of Justin and the start of the downward trend of Mulcair:

Now let’s see what happened in Ontario – note the significance of Justin’s performance in the foreign policy and second French debates – these are the points when Harper lost Ontario

And in Quebec – the significant trend here is the Dog that did not bark in the night (that is, for those not familiar with Sherlock Holmes, the absence of any uptick in the steady downward trend of the Mulcair/NDP support since before August 30 – it’s as if the debates just did not take place):

And the Liberal bastion of the Atlantic provinces:

And in the prairies – Justin takes off after the foreign policy debate, when he showed he was ready to govern over foreign events:

And in Battleground BC – the foreign policy debate kickstarted a steep rise in Justin’s fortunes:

And the needle even moved in Tory Fortress Alberta – Justin moved ahead of Mulcair with the first debate, and kept increasing the gap:

So the lesson for party leaders in future elections is this: Treat the debates as life and death events.
Because they are.
Just ask Thomas Mulcair. And Stephen Harper.
They know. Now.
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CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau the only leader with momentum

Here’s the chart from Angus Reid on the leadership momentum of the Big 3:

This bodes well for the Liberals in this critical last week of the lengthy campaign.

It you think of the trend then the pre-eminence of Justin Trudeau is even more striking. The desperate attempts of the Harper attack machine to paint him as just not ready have boomeranged badly, and he has clawed his way up from the lowly position he had some 6 months ago, to being Top Dog.

The only worrisome thing for Liberals in this last week of the titanic struggle we have been waging, in the air and on the ground, is that the Conservatives are still ahead in the single most important segment of voters under our archaic FPTP system: those who turn out to vote – those over 60.
Having a big margin in all other segments is intellectually satisfying but does not bring home the bacon.
When I voted yesterday in the advance polls, I was struck by the fact that in the long line of voters patiently waiting to cast their votes, I noticed very few who seemed younger than 55.
That’s not good news for the Liberal Party.
The only consolation is that at most Harper will gain a minority government, but it will be short-lived, with his failure to gain confidence of a 170 MPs in the first Throne Speech.

Then it will be Trudeau’s turn to see if he can gain the confidence of the House in his Liberal minority government.

The odds are that Mulcair will lead his NDP to support a minority Liberal government on a case by case confidence and other matters vote basis, until at least the archaic FPTP system of electing our MPs is replaced by a more democratic form, where every vote counts towards representation in the House.

After all, it must be abundantly clear to even an anti-Mulcair dyed-in-the-wool NDP supporter that some form of proportional representation is the best system for that party; that system alone will give the NDP voice their fair share of MPs in our Parliament.
And for the Greens, voting strategically to unseat a sitting Tory MP is in their best interest, because it will lead to the abolition of the FPTP system, and to them gaining their fair share of MPs.
After all, Elizabeth May really needs a handful of MPs to support her valiant but solitary battle with the mainstream parties.
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CuriosityCat: Liberal Party ready to give Harper pink slip on October 19

The latest Poll Tracker seat projection 9CBC/308) show the LPC winning the most seats:

You will note from my September 3 X-marks-the-spot projection that I overestimated the NDP seats when I projected more seats for the LPC on October 19:

I would prefer that the NDP win more seats at the expense of the Harper ‘new’ Tories, but if the prediction today happens, then on October 20  Harper will resign as prime minister, as he promised Canadians he would do during his interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge.
And on October 20 Justin Trudeau will be sworn in as our new prime minister by the Governor General, and we can look forward to a rapid start in the process of deciding on what democratic electoral system should replace our archaic and disliked first past the post system.
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CuriosityCat: Welcome move by Mulcair closer to Liberal position on cooperation and electoral reform

Mulcair has shown a welcome willingness to work with a minority Liberal Party government post-October 19 so as to do two things: work together without the need for a formal coalition agreement between the LPC and NDP, and to establish a commission to examine the best alternatives to be presented to Canadians to replace the first past the post system, not just the modified proportional representation system.
Here’s the reported willingness to support confidence votes (without a formal coalition government) if the Liberal Party gets the most votes as between the LPC and NDP, and Trudeau becomes prime minister of a minority government:
With the strong possibility of a minority Parliament resulting from the Oct. 19 vote, the NDP says in its platform document that it would work with other federalist parties through informal or ‎appropriate stable arrangements to end Stephen Harper’s “lost decade.”
And here is the report of his willingness to appoint a commission to examine the best alternatives to be passed into law within a short space of time, so as to replace the archaic FPTP system (making this 2015 election the last one we will have under the FPTP system):

Included in their platform, called “Building the Canada of our Dreams,” is a plan to reform the political system and “make every vote count.” The NDP is promising that, if elected, it will introduce a system of voting based on mixed-member proportional representation. That would create a Parliament composed of MPs elected in larger ridings than currently exist, plus those nominated by parties based on the proportion of the vote they received during an election.

Although proportional representation has long been NDP policy, this is the first time the party has said it would create a task force made up of members of all parties that would decide the best model for this type of democracy – and that it would be done within the first mandate.
Kudos to Mulcair for letting the Canadian voters know ahead of time that he will work in a very practical way, once the Harper government is replaced (through a Harper resignation if the Tories get fewer seats than either the LPC or NDP, or through a vote of no confidence in a Harper minority’s first Throne Speech).
These two flexible proposals ensure that a minority LPC or NDP government will be able to function after October 20, and that we are definitely going to get meaningful electoral reform and other democratic improvements to our Parliament.
As Mulcair said, we have a lot of work to do to repair the lost opportunities of the Harper “lost decade”.
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CuriosityCat: If this holds, Stephen Harper gets his pink slip on October 19


… and joins the ranks of unemployed prime ministers.
Today (October 8) the CBC Poll Tracker shows the Liberal Party with the most seats for the very first time:

Pause for a moment, all you progressives out there, and give three cheers! With only 11 days to go, the Red Tide is running strongly. Harper publicly promised to Canadians during his interview with Peter Mansbridge of the CBC that should another party win more seats that the Conservative Party does, he would immediately resign.
And in a recent interview with Rosemary Barton, he did not say outright that he would stay on Leader of the Opposition if the CPC came in second. Should that happen, and Harper not want that post, he would have to resign as leader of the CPC so that another leader may play that role. Best bet right now would be Kenney, given the paucity of senior Tories still running.
Now all we need to do is vote at the advance polls starting this Friday, and take along at least one younger voter to help remedy the lack of voting by those younger than 35. Voting now helps reduce the voter suppression methods that cropped up last time and could happen again this time: robocalls and incorrect voter registration cards sending voters to the wrong polling booths.
And starting in early November, we can take the first steps towards appointing the commission that will, within 18 months, replace the archaic first past the post electoral system with a new, more democratic system of choosing our MPs.
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CuriosityCat: The Signal Oct 6: Tories 132 seats; Liberals 132 seats; NDP 71 seats

Trudeau has led his Liberal Party to a forecasted number of MPs equal to those that Harper’s tired Conservatives might elect: 132 MPs each.
With neither the CPC nor the LPC having a majority of seats (170 MPs), this result would mean the end of the Harper government, and a new Liberal Party government, with Justin Trudeau as prime minister, and Harper as leader of the Opposition.

Now, if the Liberals claw one extra seat from the CPC or NDP, then Harper will resign as PM on the evening of October 19, as he promised Peter Mansbridge in the CBC interview, and Trudeau would take over as PM on October 20.
Then we can start righting the many wrongs that Harper has inflicted on our democracy, and set in motion the commission to replace the FPTP system of electing our MPs with a more democratic one (hopefully a modified proportional representation system).
So, everyone: vote in the advance polls (just in case robocalls start up again), take someone younger with you to vote as well, and vote strategically so as to unseat a sitting Conservative MP in your riding, if you have one.
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CuriosityCat: Another 4 LPC seats and Harper resigns on October 19

The Poll Tracker for October 5 shows the steady surge of Liberal Party votes, and translates the various polls into a national seat projection.
Harper told Peter Mansbridge that if the Conservatives won one seat less than any other party, he would immediately resign as prime minister.
With two weeks to go, the Liberals only need four (that’s right! 4!) more seats to reach the Harper Resignation total:

While you are at the site, check the seat projections and polls for Battlegrounds BC and Ontario.
And help make Harper’s decision easier by voting in the advance poll; take someone younger than you along to vote as well.
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