Prime Minister Harper deserves to be congratulated for his stunning victory. What he won tonight was more than a mere parliamentary majority; he accomplished his long-term ambition to ridicule the Liberal Party of Canada. In the face of great challenges, the largest deficit in our history, historic contempt motions, and a media so contrary that his own followers had to drown them out at rallies, he managed to win the first big score since Jean Chretien in 2000. It is also worth mentioning that he bested one of the most renowned Liberals in the world, a chair from Harvard College, and a well known television personality.
How he did it, I freely admit, I do not fully understand. I do know, however, that he did do it, and tonight I faced the passionate group of volunteers that is my Liberal family, and we knew defeat together. Our team is fierce, and the Prime Minister deserves credit for his win over us.
Almost equally as flabbergasting is the record finish of the New Democratic Party of Canada. Pundits will expound upon this forever, I imagine. I am equally sure, however, that nobody – positively nobody – saw this coming. Even Dr. Broadbent’s old line about “Give me 50 MP’s…” never foresaw more than a hundred New Democrats in Ottawa. This is their new high watermark, and they deserve to celebrate.
Elizabeth May also won her victory. I suppose this too is a first for her party, although spending the national campaign limit in a single riding raises issues of sportsmanship in my mind. No doubt we will be hearing more still from the Green leader who now takes the her place as leader of Canada’s fifth party in the House of Commons.
This election puzzles me, and while the temptation to write highly emotionally revealing things to my gentle readers is great, I don’t claim to understand at all what just happened. I have been telling friends for years that there would never be a Harper majority, and that Jack Layton would never surpass Ed Broadbent. For future reference, my friends will remember to swat me in the head when I predict things. I should obviously restrict my opinions to things I understand, forecasting Canadian politics is obviously not one of them.
Somehow, despite all that, I am tempted (as are some friends of mine) to say ‘I told you so.’ Stephen Harper has his majority, largely owing to the success of the NDP in this election. Now, granted, much of the NDP success has to do with the utter collapse of the separatist Bloc, but much also came from Team Red. The NDP simply had too far to go to catch Harper, and even their legendary 250% growth spurt was insufficient to contain the first blue majority since 1988. Mr. Layton deserves credit for his strong performance, but Canada now has a majority Conservative government. Better philosophers than I can reconcile those two things.
At the risk of fanning the flames of Liberal internal politics, I suspect that Stephane Dion and his best friends are enjoying a quiet moment of satisfaction. Those brave citizens endured years hearing Rex Murphy and others lament that Michael Ignatieff was not leader. Privately, I was amongst those who wished that things had gone differently in 2006 in Montreal. As Liberals we can no longer claim that our standing is caused solely by a party leader or a bad interview by a worse journalist and his impossible question about time warp. From today forward we must recognize the problem is larger, and the solution is something we have not tried yet. Hint, this means the solution is not a terrible leadership contest, hint hint.
One thing I mean to explore as I revisit this election (after a certain period doing my best to forget this election) is the role of public opinion polling in an election. If nothing else, this election proves that the public is swayed dramatically more than we thought by polling. The polls seem to have replaced most things in the campaign, and I think it deserves to be explored judiciously what the effects were of certain polls (polls which bear no resemblance to the final result) which were published during this campaign. My feeling at the moment is that we should outlaw the things along with witchcraft and bawdy houses.
For the past five weeks it has been my privilege to do some very interesting work on the campaign, hence why the blog has gone dark. It goes dark again now because I feel I need some distance on what is going on before I can reliably produce in the way that gentle readers have come to expect from my little website. One mopey post on election night I can allow, but my case of the gloomies might last longer than I can expect an audience to tolerate, so I’ll likely save the blogging until after my final exams at least.
One thing I will follow keenly in the meantime is the race for Speaker. Whoever it is could hardly match my esteem for Peter Milliken, and I am curious which Conservative MP will brave the impossible act to follow.
We have much to do, we Liberals. We don’t just need a new leader, but that’s not a bad place to start. You heard it here first, David Bertschi would be an excellent choice.
I will not join in with some friends of mine who are posting some rude lists of necessary changes for the party, as if they, Promethiuses, had they been in charge of this election would have brought about our next three majorities. These suggestions are especially rich when they begin by asking for the dismissal of everyone who was awarded a position of employment for which the suggestor
Now my friends, thank you for your attention, and I’ll see you again in July. Until then, if you miss me, I highly recommend the BBC mini-series “Silk,” which describes life in a London barristers’ chambers rife with drugs and sex.
