I know others have slaved over predictions models. Grats for your work. I just wait until the end, and then guess. Here’s my prediction:
CPC 130
NDP 93
LPC 63
BQ 20
GPC 1
Ind 1
I have the Conservatives at 130 because I refuse to give them a bump up, and want their seat count significantly reduced as punishment for being so anti-democratic. Polls show this to be the lower end of Conservative support. It can be lower — the NDP maintain momentum, by all accounts, and Layton has the highest leadership rating, which is an important predictor of eventual voting behaviour.
Will the conservatives get a majority? It’s unlikely. Harper is grasping at straws calling on Liberals to defect to him. His rhetoric has gotten even thicker than usual. Harper would not issue such a call unless the NDP were a threat to his standing. Usually, Conservatives passively encourage NDP votes to split off the Liberal left wing. No longer.
I believe the NDP deserve a crack at government, but that means being the Official Opposition first. They have the poll numbers to support that position, and the Liberals did not manage to successfully challenge Harper on what is really a terrible government record. It’s time for a change of guard in the opposition benches.
I don’t think the BQ will be destroyed — too bad — but greatly reduced.
I want Elizabeth May to win her seat. It’s quite possible.
There’s an independent in Quebec who leans Conservative, but keeps winning. I’ll concede.
As you see, I’m using the ‘I sense it in my gut’ seat projection system. LOL.
E-Day is going to be very exciting. There’s some uptick in Ontario for the Conservatives, but polls vary too much as to how much support the Conservatives have here. The NDP-Liberal vote split will help the Conservatives, but not so much if the NDP manage to maintain their level of support, or even go higher. So many ridings in Ontario are in play due to vote splits, it’s very hard to call. A lot will ride on last day impressions and GOTV (Get Out The Vote).
Forum Research even reports that it is possible, though not probable, for the NDP to form a minority government.
My preferred scenario at this point is 18-24 months of a Conservative minority, giving the NDP time to firm up these gains, and showcase skills. Layton is experienced, and Harper will have a harder time painting him to the Canadian public with attack ads as Canadians already know him.
Perhaps in the meantime the Liberals will fold their tent into the NDP, though I think this unlikely during a minority government, and certainly even more unlikely due to their pride.
