With talk of a spring election heating up, I thought it would be useful to check where things currently stand — as you can see from the number below, the Conservatives are within striking distance of a majority (which requires at least 155 seats)…
CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 9)
CANADA
CPC – avg 152 seats (39.9%) – low 131 (38.4%), high 168 (41.4%)
LPC – avg 73 (26.8%) – low 60 (25.3%), high 94 (28.3%)
BQ – avg 49 (10.3%) – low 43 (8.8%), high 54 (11.8%)
NDP – avg 34 (15.8%) – low 26 (14.3%), high 41 (17.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.0%) – low 0 (4.5%), high 0 (7.5%)
ONTARIO
CPC – avg 54 seats (41.9%) – low 45 (40.4%), high 62 (43.4%)
LPC – avg 37 (33.5%) – low 30 (32.0%), high 47 (35.0%)
NDP – avg 15 (16.5%) – low 12 (15.0%), high 17 (18.0%)
GPC – avg 0 (7.2%) – low 0 (5.7%), high 0 (8.7%)
QUEBEC
BQ – avg 49 seats (38.9%) – low 43 (37.4%), high 54 (40.4%)
LPC – avg 14 (24.3%) – low 12 (22.8%), high 20 (25.8%)
CPC – avg 11 (20.5%) – low 7 (19.0%), high 11 (22.0%)
NDP – avg 1 (12.8%) – low 1 (11.3%), high 2 (14.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (2.7%) – low 0 (1.2%), high 0 (4.2%)
BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – avg 23 seats (43.7%) – low 19 (42.2%), high 26 (45.2%)
NDP – avg 9 (25.1%) – low 6 (23.6%), high 11 (26.6%)
LPC – avg 4 (19.9%) – low 3 (18.4%), high 7 (21.4%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.7%) – low 0 (8.2%), high 0 (11.2%)
ALBERTA
CPC – avg 28 seats (67.5%) – low 27 (66.0%), high 28 (69.0%)
LPC – avg 0 (12.3%) – low 0 (10.8%), high 0 (13.8%)
NDP – avg 0 (7.8%) – low 0 (6.3%), high 1 (9.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (10.0%) – low 0 (8.5%), high 0 (11.5%)
PRAIRIES
CPC – avg 22 seats (54.8%) – low 21 (53.3%), high 24 (56.3%)
NDP – avg 4 (22.3%) – low 3 (20.8%), high 5 (23.8%)
LPC – avg 2 (16.7%) – low 1 (15.2%), high 2 (18.2%)
GPC – avg 0 (5.3%) – low 0 (3.8%), high 0 (6.8%)
ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – avg 15 seats (31.7%) – low 13 (30.2%), high 16 (33.2%)
CPC – avg 13 (40.8%) – low 12 (39.3%), high 15 (42.3%)
NDP – avg 4 (20.6%) – low 4 (19.1%), high 4 (22.1%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.8%) – low 0 (5.3%), high 0 (8.3%)
NORTH
CPC – avg 1 seat (37.3%) – low 0 (35.8%), high 2 (38.8%)
LPC – avg 1 (30.1%) – low 1 (28.6%), high 2 (31.6%)
NDP – avg 1 (22.8%) – low 0 (21.3%), high 1 (24.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.0%) – low 0 (7.5%), high 0 (10.5%)