Forum Research reports reduced Harper minority, NDP in Stornoway

From The Hill Times, the projection is Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only three seats for the Bloc Québécois.

As for individual ridings, Gerard Kennedy is set to lose Parkdale-High Park to the NDP’s Peggy Nash, and Beaches-East York as well to the NDP. Everyone’s favourite Conservative Gerald Keddy is set to lose to the NDP out in Nova Scotia.

Liberals and Conservatives will lose seats to the NDP in Quebec.

There’s even a loss of Conservative support to the NDP out West, though what that will do to the seat count is not clear.

There’s still a few days to go, but the Conservative campaign is winding down, correctly expecting less air time for the campaign as hockey and the royal wedding take the final weekend over.

That also means there will be little action to change numbers. With the NDP having momentum, we’re looking at the Bloc marginalized, and the NDP and the Liberals creating a majority.

I recommend an accord, but I’m getting ahead of myself.


EKOS has a different take, but not that different. NDP are a bit lower and the Bloc is holding some ground, but the NDP has surged well ahead there. All in all, I think we’re waiting to see if NDP+Liberal = majority.

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