Daniel Leblanc’s report on a possible detente between Thomas Mulcair and Brian Topp certainly makes for some interesting scenario-building. So let’s follow up on what Paul Wells has already written. Obviously, we wouldn’t expect locked-in supporters of any candidate to be swayed by the appeal. So the obvious first target
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Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 19, 2012
We’ll get plenty more information about where the leadership campaign stands once we see how membership sales have turned out. But there’s been enough news in the past week to make one change to the rankings for now. 1. Thomas Mulcair (1) When I started these rankings, I clarified that
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Roundup
A quick look back at the last few days in the NDP’s leadership race… – In addition to his support from Leadnow and Avaaz, Nathan Cullen won cross-partisan support from the B.C. Green Liberal Caucus. But it’s an open question whether the result will be a net plus for Cullen,
Continue readingProgressive Proselytizing: NDP Leadership Candidate Policy Comparisons: Israel/Palestine
The Israel/Palestine issue is the foreign policy issue to which politians are most expect to have a cogent answer to. It is a necessary right of passage and, for many, a litmus test for political support. Unlike many other countries and regions to which my research has not indicated extensive
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Roundup
Apparently there have been a few developments in the NDP’s leadership race – and indeed enough that I’ll likely need to apply a bit more a filter on what I catalogue in my roundup posts. (In particular, I’ll generally stop pointing out survey or event-based coverage which doesn’t add much
Continue readingCalgaryGrit: Who will win the race for Stornoway?
Leadership races are tricky beasts to project, due to their insular nature. There are few meaningful polls, the media is being spun in twelve directions, and the air war rarely corresponds to the ground war. Name recognition and a spiffy social media campaign are a lot less important than having
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Too close to call
Apparently it only took yesterday’s flurry of polls to create the easy narratives the media has been craving in the NDP leadership campaign. But there’s plenty of reason for caution about the messages that have been drawn from the polling. To start off with, “Thomas Mulcair on top” isn’t exactly
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Dueling NDP Polls Show New Realities
So apparently NDP leadership candidates Paul Dewar, Thomas Mulcair, and Brian Topp have semi-released (Dewar maybe fully) internal campaign polls on the leadership race which are showing conflicting results. For a good analysis of the Dewar poll, read this Pundit’s Guide article. But here are these numbers as they’ve been
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 12, 2012
It’s undoubtedly been an eventful seven days in the NDP’s leadership campaign – and one of the most important weeks of the race is just around the corner as the membership deadline approaches. But does any of the activity change this week’s rankings? 1. Thomas Mulcair (1) Certainly not at
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 – Saganash Bows Out
In my most recent leadership candidate rankings, I mentioned that I still saw a possible path to victory for Romeo Saganash. To expand slightly on what I’d planned to turn into a more substantive post, that view was based on the possibility that he could effectively put into practice Tarik
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 5, 2012
Since it’s been a little while, I’ll offer another of my periodic caveats that these rankings are intended to reflect my perception as to how likely a particular candidate is to win the NDP’s leadership rather than my own preferences. So has anything changed on that front since last week?
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Roundup
Thanks to an end-of-week conference it’s been a few days since I’ve done a general roundup on the NDP leadership race. And based on the pace of activity, it looks like we’re into the home stretch as candidates enter the last couple of weeks in which to sign up new
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On uncertain measurements
Patrick has assembled an interesting response to Eric Grenier’s work in quantifying the effect of endorsements in the NDP leadership race. But while I can understand the instinct to try to put together a measurement system for endorsements as a whole, I’d think it’s worth being careful about simply adding
Continue readingCuriosityCat: What NDP members should learn from the recent Quebec plunge
The bottom is falling out of the support for the NDP in Quebec, as recent polls have shown: The NDP nosedive in Quebec shows no signs of slowing down. With a steep drop in support among francophones, the New Democrats are now only one or two points ahead of their
Continue readingA Different Point of View....: NDPers dreamin’ of victory, ‘trash’ power sharing with Libs
The issue of having the New Democratic Party form an alliance with other parties – if such a move would keep the Conservatives out of power in 2015 – is vitally important for Canadians who fear the possibility of another four years of disastrous cutting and slashing. But some of
Continue readingProgressive Proselytizing: Halifax NDP Federal Leader Debate January 29th Analysis
The following is various reactions and analysis of the Halifax NDP Federal Leader debate on January 27th. Previous NDP debate commentary: Dec 4th Ottawa Debate | January 18th Toronto Debate part 1 | January 18th Toronto Debate part 2 (Issues and Themes). The third English language debate largely followed the themes and
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 29, 2012
With one exception, the NDP’s Halifax leadership debate looks largely to have largely reinforced the previous positions of its leadership candidates. But there could be plenty more changes in store if a few developments from the debate hold up in the weeks to come. 1. Thomas Mulcair (1) As the
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Roundup
In the lead-up to tomorrow’s official debate in Halifax, the end of this week saw plenty of developments in the NDP leadership race – including both the familiar combination of endorsements, videos and policy releases from the campaigns themselves, and an increase in outside reporting that took coverage in a
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Roundup
A quick look at just a couple more days of developments in the NDP’s leadership race… – Niki Ashton proposed an increase in immigration, particularly when it comes to family reunification. – Paul Dewar challenged Thomas Mulcair to take a position on bulk water exports, provoking at least somewhat of
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 22, 2012
For all that’s happened over the past week, the ultimate result has been largely to confirm the relative placement that the NDP’s leadership candidates have faced all along. And in cutting through the increasing volume of activity, this week’s rankings look to be drifting back toward the first set of
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