The Happy Wanderer: Justin Trudeau Wins

104,552 votes, yes just over 80% of the people who registered for the Liberal party of Canada leadership election ended up voting. A statement that was said quite often that night was that in this election more votes were cast than in any other leadership election. This is well…… true if we are talking about federal political parties.

In 2003 the Conservative leadership election
97,397 votes were cast
In 2012 the NDP leadership election
65,108 votes were cast

Although if we include provincial leadership elections the Liberal leadership election just held yesterday would only place second. The party that has obtained the most votes when it comes to electing a leader in Canada goes to the PQ (Parti Quebecois) in 2005. Yes in 2005 105,259 members of PQ voted to elect André Boisclair as leader of the PQ in Quebec.

Justin Trudeau first test as leader will be coming in the following month. That test will be the By-election in Labrador (which the Liberals are looking very likely as the winners). Justin Trudeau will most likely as all new leaders start to spike in the polls the important thing to watch here is how high will Justin Trudeau go. If Justin Trudeau ties with Harper or will Justin Trudeau lead and if so how much. All this is very important, because from the spike we can usually expect the true solid support to be anywhere 5-10% below.

What will also be interesting to watch is when will the new Conservative attack ads come, but right now it’s the honeymoon. The Liberals are trying now to sell the new leader bit as much as they can to fund raise as much as possible, and the high poll numbers and media will help Liberal fortune’s in the short run. The real show begins in the Fall session of next year, where Harper will have to start directing his attacks at either Mulcair or Trudeau.

Continue reading