Author: Thor

Driving The Porcelain Bus: Disecting Ford Nation – Part Three – Nov. 20, 2013

Crack smoking admission, “rage/murder threats” video, oral sex comment, international embarrassment, bullying and immature behaviour in council, … After a series of things that confirm, for most people, that Rob Ford should resign as Mayor of Toronto, Ford still enjoys significant support.  Unbelievable you say? How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 5 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 and Nov. 20, 2013. Again, I will look at the groups with the highest initial approval ratings on Oct. 28-29 to see if there are any significant changes.

Significant observations
• Overall approval has stayed about the same
• Support remains highest among men
• Support from seniors continues to drop (by 10% since the first of these polls), and Other Christians (by 15%)
• We see a sudden drop in support in the recent poll among these groups: Scarborough, Low Income, Other Christian
• We see a significant rise in support amongst these groups that formerly had lower support ratings: 45-54 years of age, Etobicoke or York, Renters, $60-$80k, Catholics,  Households with children

What does this mean?
We can see that the demographics of Ford Nation are changing somewhat as a result of the new revelations and incidents. Some people are starting to change their mind against Rob Ford, while others are becoming more supportive, thus, keeping the approval rating fairly steady.

The biggest swing between groups is the drop in support in Scarborough and the rise in support in Etobicoke. Maybe this means that the people of Scarborough are having second thoughts about the expensive subway plan (vs. the already-paid-for LRT plan), and the people of Etobicoke are feeling the need to rally around their hometown boy.

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% – 44% – 43% – 44% – 42%

Disapproval
61% – 56% – 57% – 56% – 58%

Let’s look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) – THE BASIC CORE

Transportation – drivers
50% – 49% – 48% – 48% – 47%

Property Owners
43% – 45% – 46% – 44% – 40%

Ethnicity – Other European (non-UK background)
54% – 45% – 53% – 53% – 53%

Education – some college or university
50% – 54% – 57% – 52% – 55%

SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT – THE RABID FANS
Gender – male
43% – 46% – 45% – 50% – 49%

DROPPED AND THEN LEVELLED OFF
Voted for Rob Ford
84% – 78% – 74% – 77% – 77%

SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Region – Scarborough
51% – 54% – 55% – 59% – 43%

Household Income – less than $20k
56% – 47% – 56% – 54% – 49%

Age – 65+
49% –  41% – 42% – 40% – 39%

Religion – “Other Christian” (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% – 56% – 55% – 57% – 51%

And here are new groups that have, over the time of these polls, risen to be the top supporters that were not initially top supporters.

Age – 45-54
46%

Region – Etobicoke or York
57%

Renters
46%

Household income – $60-$80k
53%

Religion – Catholic
54%

Have Children
49%

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Driving The Porcelain Bus: Disecting Ford Nation – Part Two – Nov. 6, 2013

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 4 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 (after the 1st video revelation and Ford’s confession, but before the release of the “rage/murder threats” video).

Changes
Approval stays about the same since the Nov. 4th poll.
The most significant changes in Ford Nation are:
• Support has risen amongst men and people in Scarborough
• Support from seniors continues to drop

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% – 44% – 43% – 44%

Disapproval
61% – 56% – 57% – 56%

Let’s look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) – THE BASIC CORE

Transportation – drivers
50% – 49% – 48% – 48%

Property Owners
43% – 45% – 46% – 44%

Household Income – less than $20k
56% – 47% – 56% – 54%

Ethnicity – Other European (non-UK background)
54% – 45% – 53% – 53%

Education – some college or university
50% – 54% – 57% – 52%

SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT – THE RABID FANS
Gender – male
43% – 46% – 45% – 50%

Region – Scarborough
51% – 54% – 55% – 59%

SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age – 65+
49% –  41% – 42% – 40%

Religion – “Other Christian” (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% – 56% – 55% – 57%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% – 78% – 74% – 77%

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Driving The Porcelain Bus: Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.
Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.
The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.
In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.
It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can’t see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 
One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven’t had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-scandal-hasnt-hampered-tories-support-poll-says/article15174731/
   “The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls.”
– and –
   “He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”

News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6302
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

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