The prospect of a minority government coupled with the need to pass a budget in the legislature after the election could produce a long, hot summer of political manoeuvring. Mainstreet Research released its poll on the Newfoundland and Labrador election. It basically shows what Abacus and Forum showed, which is
Continue readingAuthor: Edward Hollett
The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Ego, Brain Farts, and Electoral Reform #nlpoli
Public ignorance of our political system is a scourge. Tackling that is the first step to meaningful electoral reform in Newfoundland and Labrador. The second priority is to make sure the players do not set the rules for everyone, as they have done repeatedly, and disastrously, since 2003. Most of all, we
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for Election 2019 #nlpoli
The chart below looks like there has been a huge jump up and down in “no choice” and a corresponding big change in party choice but actually there is some consistency across the board. Click to enlarge As SRBP has been saying for a couple of months, the Conservatives and
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Election 2019 – First Poll #nlpoli
While the MQO poll shows the Liberals in the lead, a new poll from Abacus – released with an hour of this appearing – will likely show that since the debate, the political landscape of the province has changed dramatically. The latest poll from MQO showed that after a week
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Financial Reality of Election 2019 #nlpoli
The reality confronting any administration after May 16 is the same regardless of which party wins the election. The government is unlikely to balance the budget in 2022, regardless of who wins the 2019 election. In 2019, as in 2015, the last government budget before the election did not accurately
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Voter Turn-out and Popular Vote Shares of Parties, 1949 – 2019 #nlpoli
Election turn-out has been declining steadily for provincial elections since the mid-1990s. The 2019 general election is on track to show a record low turn-out at 44% of eligible voters. Party share of eligible vote had declined in the same period. The Liberal victory in 2015 went against the pattern
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Where do elections come from? #nlpoli
From fixed election dates to the number of candidates that run in an election, what Newfoundlanders and Labradorians believe about one of the basic institutions of their democracy is as much myth and rumour as reality. Here are some facts to help you navigate the world of post-Confederation elections in
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Restoring Power – Mitigating the Impacts of Muskrat Falls #nlpoli
Left untended, the Muskrat Falls project threatens the financial well-being of the government and people of Newfoundland and Labrador. The threat cannot be removed merely by directing money from one pot or another to offset the impact the mismanaged project’s costs would have on electricity rates in the province. The
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Budget 2019 – revised trends #nlpoli
Budget 2019 was an election budget in the sense it contained a lot of little goodies, but there was nothing to get overly excited about. While everyone else is focused on the shot-term, the long-term trending contains more interesting tidbits. The following slides update the post from Monday. Income versus
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: A CHEAP Framework – the PC and Liberal Muskrat Falls plans #nlpoli
The Conservative and Liberal Muskrat Falls rate mitigation plans are the same. Both include magical assumptions of revenue. Both omit crucial details. Note: Some people asked on Monday for comment or analysis of the two plans to mitigate Muskrat Falls’ impact on provincial electricity rates. This is an abbreviated summary
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Budget 2019 Context #nlpoli
Most of the commentary about Budget 2019 on Tuesday will be focused on the short-term. Here are some slides that show longer-term trending. We’ll update them later on with the Budget 2019 figures.This is the sort of stuff that bears watching especially since the announcement of a new federal transfer
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The 2005 and 2019 Federal-Provincial Agreements #nlpoli
The Atlantic Accord functions in Newfoundland and Labrador politics in two ways. There is the agreement between the Government of Canada and the provincial government that established the joint management framework for the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore. At the same time, there is the political prop and the associated mythology that has,
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Atlantic Accord: background to the 1985 agreement #nlpoli
The Atlantic Accord functions in Newfoundland and Labrador politics in two ways. There is the agreement between the Government of Canada and the provincial government that established the joint management framework for the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore. At the same time, there is the political prop and the associated mythology that
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Gaslighting a society #nlpoli
Saturday morning and Facebook delivered a video clip of Peter Mansbridge accepting a lifetime achievement award. After the obligatory thanks to everyone, Mansbridge delivers a scripted couple of minutes about journalism in the age of fake news and alternate facts. “Journalism is under threat,” Mansbridge warned, “in a way we
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Everyone loses: new MQO poll for NTV #nlpoli
On the eve of an anticipated election call, voters in Newfoundland and Labrador turn up their noses at everyone currently on the field. The latest MQO poll for NTV shows why no one should discard the people who don;t pick a party when asked who they would vote for. When
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Fruits of a Poisonous Shrub #nlpoli
Senator Fabian Manning says that the 2008 Anything but Conservative campaign is stilling hurting the province in dealing with the federal government. “There’s no doubt in my mind that the ABC campaign,” Manning told CBC’s Fisheries Broadcast,” [that] we pay a price for that, and people can shrug it off
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Bicycle Roads to Nowhere #nlpoli
Frecker Drive is a well-designed residential street in the west end of St. John’s. The street is wide: you can park cars on either side and still have space left for two cars to pass abreast easily along its entire length. This is a residential street. As you might imagine,
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Getting On Point back from No Point #nlpoli
For years, the only public affairs show on television or radio in Newfoundland and Labrador was Issues and Answers. NTV’s Sunday morning staple has long been ponderous and boring and it remains so. CBC’s On Point promised to add some life to the political world. But while it was interesting
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Promises, promises… 2003 contracts and tendering edition #nlpoli
In light of the controversy about Humber Valley Paving, here are some of the Conservative promises made in 2003 about contracts and public tendering, controls on political donations, special committees of the legislature, and disclosure of lobbying activities. Each of them bears on the HVP tendering controversy in one way
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: A beautiful waste
Exploring the world underneath New York City, via The Atlantic: -srbp-
Continue reading