Hudak wins on the math
This is Teddy’s math based prediction. This uses poll averaging of the last 5 polls from the last 5 unique companies to put out polls. It also weighs any poll…
TheNewTeddy
Penultimate Prediction
Ipsos has been telling us all along the Tories are headed for a win. Every other firm, however, has either knowingly or unknowingly indicated the Liberals will win. A lot…
Morning update – Ontario
After sleeping on it, and consulting with social media and other feedback, I’ve made some adjustments to the prediction. This predicts a tied popular vote, and a weak NDP as…
Debate last night
So what happened in the debate? The answer is not very much. Wynne was under intense attack at points but managed to mostly hold the line. The attacks however did…
Debate tonight
My prediction as it currently stands. I can see the polls beginning to trend towards the Liberals. In addition reading deeper into the poll numbers tells me that Liberal support…
Quick Facts – Dean of the House of Commons
Many of you will already know there exists a position called Dean of the House of Commons. The most important job of the Dean is to take to the Speaker’s…
European Elections
Feel free to compare this to my predictions from earlier. The EU is having it’s elections today. As mentioned in the post linked to above, this is all very complex,…
Sunday Update – Polls everywhere
I decided rather than split this into two posts, and make maps for each, I’ll do the unusual, and not do a map! Rather I present to you some numbers…
Ontario Prediction Update – averages
The roughly calculated poll averaged for Teddy’s Ontario prediction are as follows: I’m putting this out today – without much commentary as there is not much to say – and…
What is the GTA?
No Teddy update of the prediction this week; as polls are just as wild as before, and thus, not much has changed. Rather, an answer to a discussion that came…
India election
Teddy here with a quick update on results of the Indian election; the largest free elections in the world. As I’ve been mentioning for a while now, the election takes…
Women
I wanted to address this issue head on given the very strange nature of the problem we as predictors and projectionists face here in Ontario. We’ve had 8 polls since…
Messing up the Ontario election – when does it matter?
We’ve learned 3 things this week about the political parties from news coverage. Hudak bumbles everything.Horwath is more right-wing than the Liberals.And a Liberal candidate posted disparaging remarks about Women.…
South Africa, India, Quebec, and more.
South Africa’s elections are over. I’ve created a single catch-all table to show the full results, and compare to historic results as well. I wanted to present a map that…
South Africa Election
Vote counting is coming to an end across most of South Africa, with 90% of ballots counted, and with most Provinces reporting 93% of ballots counted or more. The laggards…
South Africa counting votes
SA’s election was today, and the nation is counting it’s ballots. Polls closed a few hours ago. As Canadians we get used to having our final results in by the…
Ontario Mathematical Prediction
This is a “Teddy Projection” – or a Blunt Objects Predictions; as Kyle handles the official Blunt Objects Projections. This was built using my new and basic ElectoMatic for Ontario.…
Ontario area codes and regional polling: disclaimer
This post is a disclaimer against people trying to figure out regional breakdowns of polls. Always figure out how they decided what riding is in what region! Some polling firms…
Ontario – Possibilities
Note the date, yesterday, on these maps. Any “brand new polls” are thus not considered within these. Regardless, here we go. So this is my base prediction, adjusted based on…
Ontario Prediction – opening day
A personal prediction. I’d like some feedback on the map as well, do you like this style; any suggestions for changes, etc? Note that within the next few days I’ll…