For the third consecutive Meaningless Simcoe-Grey Poll™, Conservative Kellie Leitch has come in first with about 39% support; Independent… Conservative candidate Helena Guergis was second with 24%.
The real numbers story on Monday, though, could be where Green candidate Jace Metheral (only one ‘L’; I don’t know why I keep on wanting to write ‘LL’) finishes up. In our first poll, Metheral placed a distant tied-for-fourth with NDPer Katy Austin, with 3% each; after the first all-candidate event on Rogers, Metheral scored 9% support, while Smardenka dropped from 19% to 11%, and Austin went to 1%.
In our third poll, posted after the Collingwood Chamber of Commerce event, Metheral has climbed again to 14%, finishing up a point ahead of Smardenka. Austin returned to 3% (in the previous two elections, Austin has captured about 11% of the vote, so I don’t believe she would drop from 11 to 3, especially as the NDP nationally is surging).
The Greens, under previous candidate Peter Ellis, has polled from just under 5% in the 2004 campaign, to 10% in 2008; for Metheral to grow Green support another three or four per cent isn’t inconceivable, especially given his performances in the all-candidate events. It may even be more, given that I think there will be an increase in the youth vote thanks to Metheral’s ingenious strategy of taking his campaign into the local bar scene. He should also draw some support from other parties; it’s possible he could poll into the 15-18% range. Anecdotally, I’m hearing the advance polls this week saw a lot of young people show up to cast a ballot – and they are more than likely to be big-time Green supporters…
So my prediction? I’m going to contradict my comments on Rogers TV tonight; a cursory review of the numbers had me thinking Leitch gets 38%, but a deeper analysis leads me to believe she’ll get 31% (realizing the fact Guergis is stronger in the south isn’t reflected in my Meaningless Poll). Guergis is close, but not close enough at 28%. That leaves Metheral at 16, and Smardenka at 14…
Let the speculation begin…
