Short of Harper getting a majority, if the Liberals truly know what they are doing, Ignatieff will be our PM within six months.
Ignatieff has ruled out a coalition. Good for him. This election can not be about whether we should be governed by a coalition. This election must be about the Harper Government and its lack of ethics, contempt for democracy and screwed up spending priorities.
People concerned about Harper winning again are… well, right. He will.
But even with Harper returning with yet another minority government, there is another way for Ignatieff to become PM.
Parliament must squash Harper at the first opportunity.
When Harper returns with a minority, the first order of parliamentary business for the ‘new’ government will be a Speech from the Throne. Convention says defeat him then (see CuriosityCat’s excellent piece on this), so close after an election, and the Governor General will give serious consideration to giving the second place party a chance to govern.
Indeed, if a Harper government fails to gain confidence, so close after an election, it’s all but an absolute given that the GG will grant the Liberals an opportunity to gain the confidence of the House.
(Technically — and it’s an important technicality — the GG will consider any and all proposals from any MPs, regardless of party affiliation. We are represented constitutionally by MPs, not political parties.)
Will Ignatieff seek the PMO with an official coalition in hand? I doubt it. It’s not in the Liberal’s interest as it plays against the Liberal’s ‘natural governing party’ instinct, spreads out the glory, and (sadly) gives credibility to the Harper Conservative’s arrogant and hypocritical rhetoric about “risky, unstable” coalitions. (As if Parliament hasn’t been unstable for the past five years…)
The Liberals should be able to negotiate sufficient ongoing support in the House regardless for, say, 18 months.
Having just found the ‘Harper Government’ in contempt, the other parties will be in an awkward position supporting a Conservative government.They also must hate dealing with Harper’s hyper-partisanship. Allowing Parliament to accomplish very little while extending the powers of the ‘executive’ under the motto “majority or bust” has been Harper’s legacy of the past five years. (Five years already?) For all the opposition parties, enough must be enough.
Working with the Liberals vote by vote, under the theme of democracy renewed, the Bloc and the NDP (and maybe, just maybe, one Green seat — we’ll see) will have more influence than they do currently. And yet, without a formal coalition, they will be unconstrained in their potential criticisms of the government.
In other words, if everyone knows their hand, they can get more without losing independence.
And the public gets to see Parliament finally work as it should.
It’s my theory that this is the Liberal’s intent.
Let’s pray they are as smart as I hope they are.
