After weeks of indecision following the closest-race-in-Australian-electoral-history (probably?), Australia finally has a government.
On 21 August, every Australian went to the polls (because they were illiberally forced to by their rights-denying government) to vote for the new government. Prior to the campaign, Labor leader and incumbent Prime Minister Julia Gillard enjoyed considerable support and was tipped to win rather easily. Unfortunately, that wasn’t how things turned out. With seats split evenly 72-72 and 76 needed for a majority, the next two-plus weeks were rife with closed-door meetings, negotiations, and promise-making between the two major parties and independent MPs making up the remaining seats.
Yesterday, the remaining 3 independents finally announced their decisions on which party to support. Labor just snuck in, making up the 76 seats through coalition with the one Green MP and the promise of three independents to support their government.
Normally, I wouldn’t write about federal politics, much less electoral politics. However, I got to thinking today about what this historical election outcome means for Australia. I decided to make some predictions.
Over the next three years, I predict:
- No real change. First and foremost I want to emphasize that I don’t think much will change. I think this not only because of the instability of a minority government and the fact that the new government will have to negotiate with both the left and right for all proposed policies (resulting in very weak, centrist policies), but also because that’s pretty much the nature of politics. If this election has shown anything, it’s that Australians are hungry for change. Labor lost upwards of 14 percent of their traditional votes to the Green Party this election after years of moving to the right. The two major parties are now so similar in policy that it would be difficult to find one major issue on which they disagree. Australians are ready for decisive action on issues such as climate change, labour laws, same-sex marriage, parental leave, etc and no such action is being offered by either party. Had the new government needed only to rely on the one Green MP for their coalition, we may have seen more accountability to these demands from the people. However, the breadth of the coalition suggests no real change can be expected in the next three years.
- Which brings me to my next prediction: The electorate will blame Labor for lack of change – and the next election will see a decisive swing back to Liberals.
- No change will mean:
- No increase in minimum wage for the next 3 years
- A paid parental scheme will be introduced, but will be restricted to 4 weeks of minimum-wage pay for new parents and will involve some sort of fine print that excludes a host of people that could use paid parental leave, like casuals
- Same-sex marriage will not be legalized. It will continue to be considered acceptable for politicians, sports stars, and public figures generally to make homophobic jokes
- Troops will remain in Afghanistan for the next 3 years. More Australian soldiers will die. National service will not be mandated.
- No new taxes on the rich or on corporations
- No new regulation on labour standards that would reverse any of the damage done under WorkChoices to workers’ rights
- A very, very weak climate change regulation will be introduced that will involve industry self-regulation and limited or no enforcement mechanisms.
What do you think?
