Paul Wells offers his thoughts on what might happen if the Cons lead in the seat count in a minority Parliament. But I’d think it’s worth noting two other considerations to counter Wells’ take that the Cons could hold on with substantially less than half the seats in the House
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Accidental Deliberations: On campaign reflections
There’s been a flurry of discussion elsewhere about the NDP’s campaign over the past couple of weeks, and I’ll chime in quickly with my own take on how the campaign has developed so far – and what we should hope for as it reaches its conclusion. To start with, I
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On distinguishing factors
The common personalities and strategies by tired right-wing governments are leading to some comparisons between the ongoing Canadian campaign and the UK’s election earlier this year. But even as we treat David Cameron’s re-election as an important warning, let’s note that there’s a rather crucial difference between the two. In
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Thursday Morning Links
This and that for your Thursday reading. – Rosemary Barton discusses why it’s in Canada’s best interest on the global stage to work on building strong multilateral institutions (including the UN) rather than counting on bluster to make a difference. But Gus van Harten notes that we’re instead signing onto
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: The Political Prisoner’s Dilemma
Let’s double back to Karl Nerenberg’s take on the opposition parties’ messages in Canada’s federal election and point out how it relates to a classic decision-making hypothetical, the prisoner’s dilemma. In the case of the federal election, here’s how the dilemma plays out for anybody whose primary goal is to
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On continuing opportunities
Let’s answer Greg Lyle’s headline question as simply and concisely as possible: No. The NDP’s opportunity in the ongoing federal campaign has never involved the ability to move the election date up to fit a rise in the polls, nor a plausible expectation that well-funded opponents would let that rise
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Lies and the lying liars who tell them
Ideally, this would be the end of the story when it comes to Stephen Harper’s callous and desperate attempt to claim the Terry Fox Foundation’s reputation for his own. But there’s reason for serious doubt that will happen – and indeed the Cons may end up treating the story as
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Trampling the message
So apparently the Harper Cons are panicking mid-campaign and throwing out years of preparation to bring in an Australian consultant to better pitch their messages of the importance of familiarity and the dangers of changing horses mid-stream. Stay tuned for their new ad in which Stephen Harper takes up bullfighting
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: New column day
Here, pointing out that if the Harper Cons have little idea what they’re doing in Canada’s federal election, it isn’t for lack of advantages over their opponents in planning out a campaign. For further reading…– Alice Funke offers a thorough look at the new strategic challenges facing all of Canada’s
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On changed messages
Paul Wells highlights the major change from the Cons’ messaging in 2011 compared to today, as the party which spent years doing nothing about obsessing over (and demonizing) the possibility of a coalition has suddenly gone mum except in front of the most partisan of crowds. But it’s worth noting
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On choosing one’s goals
If Justin Trudeau wants to set this up as the the measure of his campaign’s success… “I look forward to support from labour unions across the country.” …I for one don’t see much reason to argue. But can we also agree with the natural conclusion that if Trudeau can’t in
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On judicious outrage
Following up on this post, let’s take a look at the flip side of the possibility that political parties can help themselves out significantly by taking umbrage with competitors’ treatment of them – which is the success (or lack thereof) of exactly that strategy over the past decade. As I’ve
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Attack and response
Earlier this week, Andrew Coyne mused on Twitter about how parties seek to make hay out of attacks by their opponents, with particular emphasis on the Libs’ response to PC and Con attacks on their leaders in 1993 and 2004. But I’d think it’s worth noting some distinctions between then
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: New column day
Here, condensing this post about the lessons the federal NDP can and should learn from past provincial elections. For further reading…– Michelle Gagnon notes that one area where matters don’t seem to be in doubt is Quebec, where the NDP looks set to hold or even build on its 2011
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On crystallized positions
I’ve largely held off on discussing federal polls since few of them seem to be out of line with my initial assessment of the election as a three-way race with the NDP in a narrow lead, but with plenty of room for movement during the election campaign. But EKOS’ latest
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On final choices
Following up on this post and some additional discussion, let’s take a look at the question of what options would be available to Stephen Harper if he decided he wanted to escape a drubbing at the polls by cancelling the federal election. And fortunately, the answer looks to be “not
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Keep Quiet – Chess Master At Work
Yessiree, Stephen Harper’s choice to impose a longer election period rather than waiting to see whether his party would have a shred of credibility left after the PMO went under the microscope looks more brilliant by the day.
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Thursday Morning Links
This and that for your Thursday reading. – Michal Rozworski reminds us that austerity in Canada is nothing new under Con or Lib governments, while pointing out what the public needs to do to repel it: The campaigning Stephen Harper boasts that his tough austerity policies saved the Canadian economy.
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Lessons learned
As I noted here, it’s well worth comparing what’s happening in any given election to any recent precedents. While past performance never guarantees future results, we can tell both what lessons a party has drawn from experience, as well as how strategies change when they don’t work out as planned.
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On cautionary tales
I’ve previously offered my take on why all opposition parties – including the Libs – should and will ultimately vote the Harper Cons out of power when given the chance. But I’ll note that Don Lenihan’s argument toward the same conclusion actually offers a reminder why there’s reason for concern.
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