Tag: strategic voting

Bouquets of Gray: Vote together makes strategic recommendations in sixteen ridings

The good people over at votetogether.ca is making the following strategic choices for voters in the 2015 election: Alberta  Strategic voting in Calgary Centre: vote Liberal  Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation: vote Liberal British Columbia  Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP  Strategic voting in Kootenay—Columbia: vote NDP  Strategic voting in

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Bouquets of Gray: Vote together makes strategic recommendations in sixteen ridings

The good people over at votetogether.ca is making the following strategic choices for voters in the 2015 election:

Alberta

British Columbia

Manitoba

New Brunswick

Ontario

Saskatchewan

For my list of other ridings, see my summary of strategic voting recommendations
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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal

Peterborough—Kawartha is a new riding made up mostly from the old riding of Peterborough.  It includes (obviously) Peterborough and its environs.

Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha
Dean Del Mastro convicted

Strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha have good reason to want to avoid vote splitting and change parties in this election.  Its Conservative MP for the last decade has been the odious Dean Del who was found guilty last year of electoral corruption and tampering wiht documents and sent to prison.

In the last election, Delmastro was elected quite easily with 47% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 32% and the NDP with 14%.

Two polls have been conducted in the riding since the writ was dropped:

Both these polls and its history suggest that strategic voters should support the Liberals.

Update.  More polls confirm the call. From wikipedia summary of local election polls:

See Votetogether.ca’s page to confirm that strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha should vote Liberal.

Some recent posts:

For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.

Votetogether.ca’s recommendations:

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

Update for Oct. 15. A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in South Okanagan-West Kootenay should vote NDP:

Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
Polls for South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay
Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay

The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.

If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done here), the results would be Con. 45%,  NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%.  This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired.
A local poll conducted by Insights West (September 13) suggests that the NDP are well positioned to prevail.  It found support to be Con (33),  NDP (42), Lib.  (18),  Green (4).

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia
Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia

As I pointed out in my post on strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough.

Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson.  In the last election, vote splitting wasn’t a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.

A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference.

An Environics Poll from September 19, 2015 placed the NDP and Conservatives in a dead head: Con (37%), NDP (37%), Lib. (15%), and Green (11%).

This suggests that to avoid vote splitting, strategic voters should support the NDP.

Update. Votetogether.ca has now endorsed the NDP for strategic voters in Kootenay-Columbia.

Some recent posts:

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in Kanata-Carleton
Strategic voting in Kanata-Carleton

The riding of Kanata-Carleton in Ottawa is a new riding formed out of pieces of the old riding of Carleton—Mississippi Mills, which has been a fairly safe Conservative.  Despite this, it is shaping up to be a close race. (See a news story about this here).

In the last election, Gordon O’Connor received 57% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 24%, the NDP with 15%, and the Green with 4%.  Gordon O’Connor, however, decided not to stand for re-election.

A recently conducted poll suggests that this is a tight race between Conservative Walter Pamic (whose past militant anti-unionism has become controversial) and Liberal Karen McCrimmon.

 Clearly strategic voters will want to support the Liberals here and avoid the vote splitting.

Some recent posts:

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