Bouquets of Gray: Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Calgary Conferation,Calgary Skyview,Calgary Centre This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives’ fortress in Calgary might be one of them. A news story from the CBC reports that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview. This is also the

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Bouquets of Gray: Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Update, Oct. 17.   A new poll in Calgary Centre has the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck.  Strategic voters could make the difference.

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary Conferation,
Calgary Skyview,
Calgary Centre

This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives’ fortress in Calgary might be one of them.

news story from the CBC reports that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview.

This is also the interpretation of Eric Grenier over at threehundredeight.com.  His current projections for the Calgary ridings paint three ridings red: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview

Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre
Calgary projections from threehundredeight.com

The striking thing is not merely that Grenier’s a projecting these three seat for the Liberals.  It is also seeing weakness in other ridings such as Signal Hill and Forest Lawn.

For Calgary voters who want to vote strategically to defeat Harper, however, the message is clear.  Vote Liberal.
Some recent posts:

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
Strategic voting in
Edmonton Mill Woods

Recent local polls are bringing up some more opportunities for strategic voters, one of them is Edmonton Millwoods.

Edmonton Millwoods is a new riding located in south-east Edmonton. It was formed from the previous riding of Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, which was once represented by Liberal David Kilgour.

A new poll conducted by MainStreet Research for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting suggests that the riding could be in play:

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods
New Poll in Edmonton Mill Woods

Some recent posts:

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal

Update, Oct. 17: the votetogether.ca team has endorsed Tassi, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, as the best positioned to defeat the Conservatives.

Strategic Tactical Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic tactical voting in Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas
Strategic voting in HWAD

If the 2011 are redistributed into the new riding (see here), the result would have been CPC 40%, NDP 28%, Liberal 25%.  But in this election, most polls are showing the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario at the expense of both other parties.

Threehundredeight.com projects a Liberal victory here, with the lower bounds of their expected tally above the upper limit of the Conservative.

Now there is a new local poll that confirms that result. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of the riding for Friends of Canadian Broadcasting.  It found the Liberals in the lead:

Strategic voting Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal

Strategic tactical voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

A new local poll reveals another riding that is surprisingly competitive: Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, which includes the city of Owen Sound and towns such as Port Elgin, Southampton, Walkerton, Wiarton, Lucknow, Hanover, and Meaford.

The riding has been reliably Conservative since 2004, sending Larry Miller to Ottawa with ever increasing margins.

The voters of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, however, may have had enough of the Conservatives.

A poll in the riding in September showed some weakness and a new poll released today confirms that:

Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

To judge from today’s poll, the Liberals may be within striking distance if a few more Greens and NDP back them.

Some recent posts:
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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George
Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George

Cariboo-Prince George is large and remote, making up some 80,000 sq. km. of central BC and includes the cities of Quesnel and Williams Lake.

Cariboo-Prince George is not a place that one would expect the Conservatives to be vulnerable—it has been reliably Conservative since the late 70s.

Recent polls, however, show that the NDP could defeat them here:

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George poll

The key is that anti-Harper voters support the NDP.

Some recent posts:

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