Don’t gloat. Don’t lose that smile. Don’t get distracted. The real goal is the election in 2015. The NDP have been pushed aside. In the 2012 byelection in Calgary-Centre the NDP went down to 2%, and in Labrador they were moved aside in today’s byelection. The Conservatives have been somewhat
Continue readingTag: Polls
Impolitical: Irresponsible Polling Developments on "Responsible Resource Development"
Interesting report from Canadian Press on the government’s advertising campaign on “Responsible Resource Development” in more ways than one: “Light on facts, heavy on patriotism, focus groups help hone NRCan advertising.” Two things here… Natural Resources hired Leger Marketing to do some research on the government’s advertising messages, as the
Continue readingcalgaryliberal.com: Alberta Politics: “21 per cent of all respondents were undecided.”
21% of Albertans, according to a Leger poll, are undecided as to who they would support in an election. So who is going to convert these 1 in 5 Albertans? It’s not the Wildrose. They’re a known quantity, for good or ill. Nor will it be the Progressive Conservatives, racked by
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Tories at 30% #nlpoli
Local pollster MQO released some previously confidential polling data on Thursday that showed the ruling Conservatives were getting about 25% of public support in July and August and only slightly better than that until November. The Tories got a bump up in December to about 35%, likely from the Muskrat
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Your Future is in Their Hands: impacted poller #nlpoli
David Brazil, member for Conception Bay East-Bell Island, on how he and his political colleagues approach the task of governing: Mr. Speaker, we do not govern by polls. We want to know what the people really think. Someone forgot to tell Brazil that public opinion polls do exactly that: they
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: New Politics, Polls and the Media #nlpoli
Given that the local media missed the single major story of the 2011 provincial general election until after it was over, the editors and journalists in the province might want to think about how they can better cover the next provincial election…
Continue readingCalgary Grit: Let’s Not Get Ahead Of Ourselves
Lorne Bozinoff, discussing Forum’s latest poll, explains what “should be clear by now”: “It’s clear by now that the Trudeau phenomenon is no one-day wonder, and that a Liberal Party led by him would be the prohibitive favourite to beat in the next federal election,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said. This likely makes me a bad Liberal, but if Bozinoff thinks Justin Trudeau is the “prohibitive favourite” to win the next election, I’m willing to put $1,000 on … →
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Mitt Romney’s three miscalculations
Polls never lie, eh?Seems they can make you see things that aren’t there, as the Romney team did big time:They made three key miscalculations, in part because this race bucked historical trends: 1. They misread turnout. They expected it to be between …
Continue readingcalgaryliberal.com: Calgary-Centre By-Election: Forum Poll has Tory at 48%, Harvey Locke (L) at 28%, Greens and NDP at 8%-11%
Forum Research released a poll of the Calgary-Centre byelection to gauge the support of each candidate in the riding. Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt sits at almost half of the support of the riding, with Harvey Locke some 20 points behind her at 28%. Since the previous poll (in August) the
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Will Romney win the "jobs" argument and therefore Pennsylvania?
This Republican analysis thinks so: Our latest Pennsylvania poll conducted 10/11-10/13 and released by the Washington Examiner October 18thshows Mitt Romney has taken the lead over President Obama by a 49-45 margin. This automated poll, conducted with 1,376 likely voters, was conducted on behalf of the Republican State Committee of
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Presidential Election: The Battle of the Pollsters
Nate Silver – 538 pollster While most Americans are focusing on the battle between Obama and Romney, hardcore political junkies (such as you) are also darting from one poll to another, and one pollster to another. Gallup, the grandfather of polling, has raised hackles amongst some. Nate Silver, a pro-Obama
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Women pushing Romney to the top in Battleground States
Obama had had a very comfortable margin over Romney with women voters. But since his incompetent debate performance, women have given Mitt Romney a second look. And now many of them are deciding to vote for him. So many that Romney is beating Obama in the Battleground States: Mitt Romney
Continue readingImpolitical: Today’s big poll
“Liberal poll numbers climb over NDP as leadership starts.” A few quick thoughts… I looked at the dates over which this poll was conducted, first: “The telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted between Oct.4-11 and is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: An early Trudeau effect in polling?
Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains: A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first
Continue readingcalgaryliberal.com: Don’t listen to the polling.
A recent poll has the Alberta Liberal Party 40% up on their election numbers. Another poll has the federal Liberals up some 5 points, overshadowing the NDP and on the heels of the Conservatives. But don’t for a single moment think that these polls mean anything. It’s at most three years away
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Berry & Bickers: Obama will lose; say hello to President Romney
Berry & Bickers electoral map forecast Two professors who have a forecast model with an accuracy rate of 100% for the past 8 presidential elections believe that the next president will be named Mitt Romney. Michael J. Berry, of the University of Colarado, Denver, and Kenneth N. Bickers, of the
Continue readingPop The Stack: Could the Liberal Party Become The Open Party?
Here’s a short survey from the Liberal Party on foreign ownership rules for natural resources. There are two interesting things about this. First, foreign ownership of our natural resources, especially by state corporations of other nations, is an important issue Canadians need to talk about more. I’m not especially knowledgable
Continue readingPop The Stack: Could the Liberal Party Become The Open Party?
Here’s a short survey from the Liberal Party on foreign ownership rules for natural resources. There are two interesting things about this. First, foreign ownership of our natural resources, especially by state corporations of other nations, is an important issue Canadians need to talk about more. I’m not especially knowledgable
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Latest Daily Kos PPP Poll – Obama does not do well
A Public Policy Polling poll of 1,300 likely voters over the period October 4 to 7 has a wealth of results, with some interesting changes in the standings nationally of Obama and Romney since the gamechanging first debate: Overall, Mitt Romney now leads Obama by 4%, with Obama abead by
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Latest poll debunks Quebec myth about Trudeaus
Justin Trudeau – The Healer? The good news for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals just keeps pouring in, with the latest Decima poll showing that the Trudeau name is poison in Quebec is a myth: The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey released Friday says 36 per cent of those who
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