They were up late counting the votes in Brandon-Souris Monday night. That, despite the fact that the final poll of the campaign showed the Liberals with a commanding 29-point lead. In the end, the Liberal vote was 16 points lower and the Tory vote was 14 points higher. It would
Continue readingTag: Polls
Scott's DiaTribes: Forum Polling Updated (in 2 ridings) for the byelections on Monday
Consider this a continuation of last blogpost, where I said I’d update the post if Forum came out with 1 last quickie update. I figured it just was better to post the new numbers here: In brief: Toronto-Centre and Brandon were re-polled today. Bourassa and Provencher were not – their
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Another Test For Forum Research & Its Polling Methods (in byelections anyhow)
For a minute, let’s forget what partisan side of the fence we’re all on, and turn into poll analysts. Forum Research is the only pollster doing any poll tracking of the four byelections, which are to commence tomorrow. Forum’s probably last poll of the cycle before Monday lists the following
Continue readingknitnut.net: Introducing our newest family member
Look! We adopted a bunny! This is not just any old bunny either, this is the sweetest, mellowest, most inquisitive bunny EVER. He’s got the funniest little bunny bum and a twitchy little bunny nose and he’s incredibly soft and cuddly. I always wanted a bunny! We don’t actually have
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Liberals gain from NDP crisis. Tories no change. #nlpoli
The headline is as dramatic as NTV could make it: Leadership crisis sends NDP tumbling to third place in NTV/MQO poll The numbers looked bad for the Dippers: Grits at 52% of decideds. Tories at 29% and the NDP in the basement at 18%. Then you take a closer look
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Senate reform still desired over Senate abolition or status quo
Despite the Senate scandal deepening, it appears that for now, Canadians still prefer reforming the Senate over abolishing it, as indicated by this Ipsos-Reid poll from a couple of days ago. 49% of respondents indicated reform (and the Ipsos question on reform is worded as “..reformed to make it for
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: More encouraging polls for the Liberals
Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes: The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Management of Economy is Achilles Heel of Liberals and Dippers
Three stewards a-waiting … The latest IPSOS-Reid poll shows that the Harper new Tories maintain their lead amongst voters when it comes to the critical issue of who is the best choice to manage the country’s economy. Voters believe that Harper and his Conservatives are the best by a whopping
Continue readingCalgary Grit: Charter Polling Misses Mark
For those hoping Quebecers would abandon Marois over her utterly repugnant charter, this is an encouraging headline: Quebec Liberals jump to 7% lead over PQ as backlash grows over values charter A recent boost in support for the Quebec Liberals means the party could secure a “hair thin” majority in
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Importance of Appearing Earnest #nlpoli
Once upon a time, not so very long ago, your humble e-scribbler noted the importance the provincial Conservatives placed on the appearance of things. The idea came together neatly in a celebrity interview not by someone in the private sector media but by a representative of the state-run broadcaster. “Government
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: 2 sides of the polling analysis coin
Latest Nanos Poll numbers for the federal parties: LPC 36, CPC 30, NDP 25. Nik Nanos commentary on this 2 pt gain for the Liberals over the CPC was that it was to do with the Senate scandal, not Justin’s admission he smoke marijuana: Trudeau hasn’t seen a rise in
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: This poll and that poll – more summer bad news for the Conservatives
More polls to talk about today. First, two-thirds of Canadians who were polled disapprove of Prime Minister proroguing Parliament in Sept and waiting until late October to reconvene Parliament. As I said in my blogpost just the other day, this is probably the most “conventional” use of proroguing Parliament (or
Continue readingCalgary Grit: Byelection Results Roll In
With most of the results in, it appears the Liberals have held Scarborough-Guildwood and Ottawa South, with the NDP winning Windsor-Tecumseh and London West, and Doug Holyday squeaking it out in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. On the surface, this is a disastrous result for Kathleen Wynne, losing three seats and seeing her party’s
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Byelection Day in Ontario – grading the pollsters polls
Interested political observers and partisans will be looking at today’s by-elections here in Ontario to see what message the voters will be sending the Ontario Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne. I’ll be interested in the results for more then one reason. We have had 2 polling companies – Forum, and
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Montana Time #nlpoli
Both CBC provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane and Telegram editor Russell Wangersky had opinion pieces this weekend telling the provincial Conservatives that they have a big political problem now that they are in third place in a CRA poll. The Conservatives need to change what they are doing. Wangersky had
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: On Senate Reform
Your latest poll from Forum Research on what should be done with the Senate: “More than one third want to abolish the Senate. An additional 37% called for the Senate to become an elected body. Less than 10% felt it best to leave the Senate as is. The latest results
Continue readingCowichan Conversations: Polling Should Be Banned During BC Elections!
Richard ‘Hub’ Hughes- Political Blogger This is as good a time to take a step forward and ban political polls beginning 30 days before voting day. We have all seen the results in three successive provincial elections in Ontario, Alberta and of course right here in BC. Considering the veil
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Self Skew-ered #nlpoli
Two thirds of tax filers in Newfoundland and Labrador report incomes of less than $35,000 per year. The Harris-Decima poll released by the Newfoundland and labrador Association of Public Employees on Wednesday has only 27% of the sample with an income less than $40,000 per year. Still, the results show
Continue readingCalgary Grit: Chickening Out On Change
“Well this is awkward” We’ve been reminded this week that an 8-point lead in the dying days of an election campaign is about as safe as a 2-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of a playoff hockey game. Never take anything for granted. Despite leading by between 2 to
Continue readingProgressive Proselytizing: On polls and election predictions
If nothing else, the BC Liberals’ entirely unexpected and dominating win in BC last night will be a useful lesson in humility for pollsters and those that rely on them to prognosticate about elections. All the polls showed a strong (and possibly growing) lead for the NDP, and poll aggregators
Continue reading