There’s a lot of excitement in Liberal land over the latest Nanos poll: CPC 35.6%Lib 28.1%NDP 27.3%Green 3.9%BQ 3.9% As much as I’d love to jump up and down and chant “suck it Peter Newman“, the reality is that this poll is essentially meaningless. We’ve just been through an exhausting
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Impolitical: A new poll
“Federal Liberals gain on NDP, Conservatives, poll finds.” Let’s fight the “it doesn’t mean anything” meme before it starts, shall we? I will venture to say it means something. It’s a psychological boost, let’s not kid ourselves amidst all the Liberal party is dead doom and gloom. It’s also a
Continue readingCuriosityCat: NDP supporters want a Quebec leader and electoral cooperation with Liberals
A surprising finding from the latest Ipsos Reid poll, and a very disconcerting one for Brian Topp.A large majority (58%) of NDP supporters believe that the next leader should hail from Quebec:Fifty-eight per cent of NDP backers surveyed nationally stro…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: First Post-Three-Peat Poll
Ontario News Watch has an Innovative Research poll that puts all parties within statistical margin of errors of the October 6th result, but Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have edged up ever so slightly, from the 37.6% of the election to 39%. The Hudak PCs …
Continue readingBlunt Objects: “Now we can confidently say there is trend in favour of Bob Rae at the current time”
Lol, what?“Nycole Turmel hasn’t really caught the imagination of voters. … She is there minding the shop but her personal numbers are not necessarily moving.” This means, however, that Mr. Rae is winning second place by “default,” Mr. …
Continue readingAnd the winner is…
So, which pollster had it right?I recorded the last polls of the election here.Here they are compared to the results. Source Liberal PC NDP Green Dates Details RESULTS 37.6% 35.4% 22.7% 2.9% Oct 6 THE ELECTION! Angu…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Polls aplenty in Ontario
To recap in the last day, Ekos, Nanos and Ipsos all indicate the Liberals are close to or will get a majority (Ipsos even went so far as to say in an interview that it’s over – the Liberals will win), while Abacus is showing a tighter Liberal lead that could go either way, and now Angus Reid has released a poll this AM saying they have a slight PC lead.
I’m not sure if that’s it for polls – Harris Decima is the only major pollster I haven’t seen release anything of late – but it appears it will again come down to who can get their […]
Continue readingCalgaryGrit: “The Tories are not going to win. This campaign is all but finished"
Those are the words of Ipsos’ John Wright.If Tim Hudak is worried about a Liberal-NDP coalition, there’s only one way to prevent it at this point – and it’s not by voting PC.Ipsos (Sep 30 to Oct 3; n = 1200 phone)Lib 41%PC 31%NDP 25%Green 3%Nanos (Oct …
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Ipsos Gives OLP 10-point lead, supports Ekos
Wow, who would think you would see this from Ipsos Reid, on an incumbent premier who has not had the best eight year legacy attached to his name?A ten-point lead, so close to election day? That’s pretty good confirmation of momentum if I ever saw one.I…
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Powerful reason why Horwath should support PR now: her party is bleeding votes
The latest EKOS poll shows one dismaying finding that Andrea Horwath should respond to if she wants to end up on Friday in a position to influence the way the province is going to be governed for the next 4 years.The EKOS poll shows substantial bleedin…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Ekos – OLP – 37.8, PCPO 30.6, ONDP 22.7
Ah, good ol’ Ekos – just when you needed a new spin thrown your way.The Liberal lead over the Progressive Conservatives appears to be solidifying as the parties approach the Oct. 6 election, according to an EKOS Research poll released to iPolitics Mond…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: The closing days of the Ontario campaign
Only a few days left until Ontario voters get out to vote for their next provincial government, and the polls that came out on the weekend still had a neck and neck race. Ekos released a new poll this AM which seemed to indicate the Liberals were pulling away just a tad, but it still is close.
It will be interesting from my standpoint to see a) which polls were closest (online, IVR or traditional phone) and also the similarities/differences to the Ontario vote from the federal election in May, and what can be learned from that.
Also, with regards to a rumour of Harper coming to Toronto to […]
Continue readingCuriosityCat: How NDP Andrea Horwath could secure PR within a few months
The latest compilation of poll of polls by threehundredeight shows that it would appear that Liberal support is solid, PC support is sliding, and NDP support is on the rise.The 308 projection is as follows:And this leads 308 to the conclusion that the …
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Sid Ryan = Deal Del Mastro, NDP = Conservative
Need proof that the NDP and Conservatives are more similar than not? Let me offer this up:The Ontario Federation of Labour has commissioned a new poll that shows New Democrats leading or competitive in a number of key ridings.OFL President Sid Ryan sai…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Poll Update – Abacus, Ekos, and the Debates
There’s two new polls out for the Ontario election, both showing different results.First up, everyone’s favourite pollster, EKOS Research, puts the race at a low 3.5% spread between the Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, 34.9% for the OLP …
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Ontario leaders debate tonight is big
We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20′s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.
Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on […]
Continue readingCalgaryGrit: Dean Del Mastro: Champion of Democracy and Scientific Polling Methodologies
The biggest fireworks so far in the sleepy Ontario election campaign have not come between the candidates, but between the pollsters. And there’s a new pollster on the block – Dean Del Mastro:Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s parliamentary secretary ha…
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Canadian election: Who switched parties in the last week? And why?
The EKOS survey taken after the election throws some interesting light on the Changers. The G&M article is here, and the poll results are herehttp://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/41st_election.pdf.Scott’s Diatribes deals with another face…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: If younger voters had bothered to vote in Ontario, Harper would have lost.
There was some conventional wisdom out there in pundit land that in the last few days of the May election, the Conservatives and Harper bit of fear-mongering that the NDP might be elected to government caused right-leaning Liberals to turn and vote Conservative in order to stop this, thus causing the vote splits in Toronto and such that ensured a Harper majority.
According to a study by Ekos, however, that was not the case:
In his post-election analysis, which he presented to a polling conference in Ottawa last week, Mr. Graves says that his sample of 1,000 voters in Ontario did not find a respondent who shifted to the […]
Continue readingCuriosityCat: NDP will lose ground in Quebec under Topp and gain under Mulcair – Angus-Reid poll
Some very bad news for the NDP in the latest Angus-Reid poll. That sound you hear in the background is the clucking of the chickens coming home to roost:Most Canadian voters are standing by their choices in the May 2011 election, but the survey shows t…
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