Shift happens: An Alberta pollster runs down the road looking for a crowd of Albertans to survey. Nothing in sight, however. Below: Premier Alison Redford and Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith. Whatever went wrong with those notorious pre-election Alberta public opinion polls, it’s not, as many pollsters now appear to be
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Northern Insight: Secret shared
Jim Newell, Salon.com “The dirty little secret about political punditry, that is not actually a secret to anyone who watches and reads it, is that it’s all lies. It requires very little knowledge or skill, and there are no consequences for being wrong. “For a major newspaper to fire one
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Tory and Dipper leader in approvals tie in NL: poll #nlpoli
An unspecified number of people polled online in Newfoundland and Labrador by Angus-Reid approved almost equally of the job done by e Premier Kathy Dunderdale and New Democratic party leader Lorraine Michael. The margin of error for the entire poll of more than 6,600 Canadians in nine province is given
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Poll Math #nlpoli
Just for the heck of it, here’s the most recent CRA marketing poll adjusted to take out the misleading way CRA reports its clients poll numbers. Here are the Conservative Party voter choice results from the fall of 2010 when Kathy Dunderdale took over the Tory leadership until the most
Continue readingDavid Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: Forum poll revealed: With an iPhone and a blog, we can now predict poll results before they’re published!
Wildrose Party Leader Danielle Smith with the voice of Forum Research Inc. She’s smiling because she likes his answers. Alberta pollsters and politicians may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Dave, about to hang up on another poll. ForumPoll3 by djclimenhaga Forum Research Inc. of Toronto was back in the
Continue readingDavid Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: Second Forum poll shows Wildrose still soaring: Press 1 if you believe it, Press 2, if you have your doubts…
A Forum Research Inc. spokesperson counts up support for Alberta’s far-right Wildrose Party. Below: Forum President Lorne Bozinoff. Well, that’s one strategy for establishing your polling credibility: If you come up with a poll that other pollsters, bloggers and the usual complainers dismiss as an outlier, do another one that
Continue readingNorthern Insights / Perceptivity: Majority supports Keystone XL, or do they?
Wetland oil spill – Evi, Alberta Vancouver Sun headlines: U.S. majority supports controversial Keystone XL pipeline project: poll “A majority of U.S. voters still support TransCanada Corp’s controversial Keystone XL pipeline as the Obama administration again weighs whether to approve or scrap the project, according to a new poll. “Rasmussen
Continue readingDavid Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: National Post poll bad news for Alberta Tories … in the unlikely event it’s right
A word of advice, boys: don’t bet all your kibbles on the results of a one-day demon-dialer poll! Alberta political analysts or the chances they take may not be exactly as illustrated. Toronto’s National Post – or, as I prefer to think of it, the National Pest – states in
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Margin of error defined #nlpoli
Corporate Research Associates November 2011 omnibus: If a provincial election were held today in Newfoundland and Labrador, for which party would you vote? Progressive Conservative Party 60% CRA August 2011 omnibus: If a provincial election were held today in Newfoundland and Labrador, for which party would you vote? Progressive Conservative
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Insiders on Polls during Elections #nlpoli
Just when you thought it was safe to stick your head up now that the poll-talk was gone, along comes three party insiders talking to Peter Mansbridge about polls. Take the time to watch this video. The front segment on polls is short. You will learn a…
Continue readingDavid Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: The jury’s out – or it should be, anyway – on the Calgary Herald’s latest pro-Redford poll
Premier Alison Redford of the Popular Conservatives is really popular with these guys, you can just tell!Wow! This just in! Alison Redford is so popular….How popular is she?Alberta’s new premier is so popular she’s more popular that her popular p…
Continue readingNorthern Insights / Perceptivity: Another poll in need of a dog
Global BC reports a poll has Mayor Gregor Robinson ahead of NPA candidate Suzanne Anton by a margin of 2 to 1. The broadcaster’s analysis is that Robinson is in trouble because “Vancouver could be headed for a divided council.”
Is that a logical con…
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: PPM: Controversy, Accountability and Disclosure #nlpoli
On October 3, Liberal leader Kevin Aylward issued a news release in which he claimed that the second MQO poll released the Friday before had been “bought and paid for by the Tories.” In the release, the Liberals also claimed that “[t]he Dunderda…
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: PPM: The Polls and the Local Media #nlpoli
All daily media in the province reported polls released by polling firms during the 2011 general election. They reported the polls as the firms released them. That is, they did not question or alter the presentation of the numbers, nor di…
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Handling the Undecideds #nlpoli
Opinion polls conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador that ask about party choice measure the opinion of the entire population of eligible voters. As such, discarding the undecided responses (anything other than a party choice) or reallocating the unde…
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: PPM: The Polls in the 2011 Election #nlpoli
Polling firms released more election polls in the 2011 provincial general election than in any recent provincial election. Corporate Research Associates, Environics, MQO (MarketQuest Omnifacts) and Telelink produced a total of five polls. MQO is…
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Politics, polls and news media #nlpoli
For the past 65 years, public opinion polls have been an integral feature of news media reports on politics and elections. The reasons are pretty simple to understand. Most public opinion polls are conducted by professional firms using sci…
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: An excess of chutzpah: pollster attacks colleagues over methods, accuracy #nlpoli
Corporate Research Associates president Don Mills is criticising his professional colleagues for their use of online surveys to conduct opinion polling. CRA uses telephone surveys. In two election polls released in September, MQO reportedly used a comb…
Continue readingPolitics and Entertainment: Smart Polling from EKOS: No Sign of Ontario Shifting to Tories
HIGHLIGHTS
Click to Enlarge 37.8% LPO
30.6% PC
22.7% NDP
7.3% Green
1.6% other
Direction of province (Ontario):59% right direction
41% wrong direction
Direction of provincial government (Ontario):53% right direction
47% wrong direction
Impact of m…
The Sir Robert Bond Papers: CBC torques poll coverage #nlpoli #nlvotes
Think of it as another form of poll goosing. As an example of how news media can take a piece of information and make a false statement out it, consider CBC’s online version of the story about a poll released Friday by the same company that polls fo…
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