Following is a commentary by Don Mills of Corporate Research Associates in response to the post “CRA, Abacus, and the 2013 Nova Scotia General Election”. – EGH Don Mills’ commentary is available two ways: via Scribd and underneath the Scribd insert, as a post within SRBP. The Scribd version is
Continue readingTag: polling
Politics, Re-Spun: Online Surveys, No Longer Much Fun
Once upon a time, it was fun to take online polls. For lots of reasons. But one of my favourites was to watch how poorly polls could be constructed. Once, six years ago, Innovative Research Group put a racist poll into the field. It included questions about whether I had
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Forum polls: looking grim for OLP in the byelections
New polling done by Forum released today shows the OLP may only be winning 1 seat of the five byelections this August 1: The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead in two longtime Liberal strongholds — one in Toronto and the other former premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ottawa riding, according to a
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: And then magic will happen: Kennedy #nlpoli
Corporate Research Associates obscures what little useful information there is in its quarterly polling by converting party choice numbers to a share of decideds instead of a share of all answers. Nowhere has this been more obvious lately than in its second quarter polling in Newfoundland and Labrador. Report the
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Polling Voters #nlpoli
If you are still mulling over the British Columbia election result and the polls, take a look at this post by Eric Grenier at threehundredeight.com. It includes a link to his piece in the Globe on Wednesday on the same topic. Pollsters tend to weight their samples to match the
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: On phone polling vs internet panels
An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts). Why was his polling better then every other public domain
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The NAPE Poll Income #nlpoli
As it turns out, Harris-Decima used household income not individual income for weighting the poll they did for NAPE. Keith Dunne, NAPE’s communications co-ordinator tweeted the correct information on Thursday morning. Your humble e-scribbler thought it was individual income and therefore concluded – wrongly – that there was a skew
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Self Skew-ered #nlpoli
Two thirds of tax filers in Newfoundland and Labrador report incomes of less than $35,000 per year. The Harris-Decima poll released by the Newfoundland and labrador Association of Public Employees on Wednesday has only 27% of the sample with an income less than $40,000 per year. Still, the results show
Continue readingAlberta Diary: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory: lessons from B.C. for NDPers everywhere
Just to set the mood, it’s Left-Leaning B.C. Premiers Day on Alberta Diary. Here’s your blogger with some former NDP premiers from that province – Dave Barrett above, Mike Harcourt and Ujjal Dosanjh below. No one can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory quite like the New Democrats in
Continue readingPolitics, Re-Spun: A brief reflection on BC election polling
Once the disappointment over the BC election isn’t so painful, there’s something that needs to be talked about regarding polling. This is a quick, stream-of-consciousness post, and I plan on writing more later. While Mario Canseco of Angus Reid said, this morning, that it’s not a “methodology” problem, I think
Continue readingNorthern Insight: Bloggers 1 / BC Pro-media 0
Excellent piece in the Globe & Mail by Eric Grenier (@308dotcom) on why he expects no irregular polling results in the BC election, as seemed to occur in Alberta last April. Why the B.C. NDP aren’t likely to see a Wildrose-like collapse “…Add to that the fact that the polls
Continue readingAlberta Diary: Advice for Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau: Hammer Stephen Harper on the economy
The neoliberal Harper economy at work: a Toronto street scene, last week. Below: Thomas Mulcair, Justin Trudeau, Stephen Harper and Margaret Thatcher. Here’s some free advice for a couple of would-be Canadian prime ministers who are both in the news these days, the NDP’s Tom Mulcair and the Liberals’ Justin
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Tories below 30 #nlpoli
By now you’d be living in a cave if you hadn’t heard any news of the latest Corporate Research Associates poll. The NDP are slightly ahead of the Tories and both are about 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals. More people want Lorraine Michael as Premier than want Kathy
Continue readingAlberta Diary: Two polls show how, and maybe why, Alberta’s Tory coalition is crumbling
Weakened but still standing: The mighty Tory edifice. Don’t panic. This is a metaphor! Below: Alberta Premier Alison Redford. It’s interesting to juxtapose the results of two new polls on related but different topics that were released yesterday – a Think HQ poll of Alberta voter intentions and an Environics
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Party Spending on Polls #nlpoli
Over the past decade, the provincial Conservatives have consistently outspent the other parties in the province on polling and similar research in both election and off years, according to figures filed with the province’s elections office. The table below shows the amounts each party reported as spending on research and
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Some evidence #nlpoli
A few years ago, some people believed that comments left on news stories and in online discussion groups could influence public opinion. As it turns out, no one took any advice about anything from some person called newfiesexgod27. Who knew?
Continue readingNorthern Insight: BC political alignments remain stable
When the watercarriers report that massive government advertising is making a material difference to BC Liberal fortunes, be inclined to skepticism. Last November, Stephen Smart, CBC’s Liberal correspondent, said Angus Reid’s poll gave new hope to the Clark government. Except an analysis of decided and leaning voters suggested nothing much
Continue readingThe Scott Ross: Idle No More Might Be Popular No More: Polls
A few online polls suggest Idle No More is not supported by a majority of Canadians. Though there appears to be no major polling done as of yet, three recent online polls give some idea about the popularity of Idle No More. The larger of the polls was on Jan.3,
Continue readingAlberta Diary: Pollster’s take on Alberta leaders’ popularity sets stage for long Prairie slug-fest
Shades of things to come? Alison Redford, Canada’s second most popular premier, gets ready to break a board with Opposition Leader Danielle Smith’s face on it. Situations Alberta politicians find themselves in may not be exactly as described. Below: Ms. Smith. Alison Redford remains Canada’s second most popular premier behind
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Your Future is in Their Hands: impacted poller #nlpoli
David Brazil, member for Conception Bay East-Bell Island, on how he and his political colleagues approach the task of governing: Mr. Speaker, we do not govern by polls. We want to know what the people really think. Someone forgot to tell Brazil that public opinion polls do exactly that: they
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