Blunt Objects: Three Consequences of the Ontario Election

Last night we saw what we thought was previously impossible – Dalton McGuinty won a third term, just one seat short of a majority government. There are, however, consequences to last night’s results that will probably drive the narrative for the next few years in this province, and of course in this country. They’re important, ...

The Progressive Right: John Tory on the Ontario Liberal Party’s Victory

I said it before, and I’ll say it again. Had John Tory still been Progressive Conservative leader, he’d be the Premier of Ontario today, and I’d still be an Ontario Progressive Conservative. This is what a competent and pragmatic conservative contender for the top job in the province sounds like. Sigh …

Blunt Objects: Ontario Election Maps

I’ve created two maps of the results. First a map showing the results straight-upNot much to say at this time, similar to maps you can find elsewhere. Secondly, and perhaps more interestingly, I’ve combined the recent Provincial and Federal results into a single map:This clearly shows the 18 ridings in the GTA insert where McGuinty ...

Blunt Objects: Quick Ontario Election Post-Mortem

I just want to point out a few things quickly, and I’ll go more in-depth later on tonight. First off, while the projection failed, it didn’t fail too spectacularly – it got 16 ridings wrong, five of them which went Liberal, nine which went PC, and two which went NDP. Otherwise, it made the correct ...

Blunt Objects: Ontario Liberals win strong Minority Government

McGuinty’s Liberals have managed 53 seats for a razor thin minority. The Tories at 37 and NDP at 17 have a combined total of 54, making for the strongest possible minority for the Liberals.

Blunt Objects: Liberals win in Ontario

Still not clear if it’s a majority of minority, but it’ll be close either way, Currently looking like a very strong minority, but 2 seats can change that.

Blunt Objects: Ontario 2011 – Full Predictions

The Blunt Object’s blog is predicting a Ontario Liberal majority government, with 58 seats being given to the incumbent party of Premier Dalton McGuinty. 29 seats are won by the Progressive Conservatives lead by Tim Hudak, an increase of three from 2007, and 20 seats are won by Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats, who double their ...

Accidental Deliberations: Thursday Morning Links

This and that for your Thursday reading. – Adam Radwanski warns that Ontario’s voters can’t afford to stay home from today’s provincial election. – Jim Stanford calls out the Harper Cons and their right-win echo chamber for their baseless and gratuitous attacks on unions. But given the decades-old trend linking stagnant wages and increasing inequality ...

Accidental Deliberations: Wednesday Evening Links

Miscellaneous material for your midweek reading. – Erin compares the stimulative effects of Ontario’s election platforms: A multiplier is the amount by which a dollar of budgetary outlay increases Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The federal Department of Finance estimates multipliers of 1.3 for public expenditure, 0.9 for personal tax cuts and 0.2 for corporate tax ...

The Progressive Right: Tory Candidate Blames Campaign Troubles on Tim Hudak

Blunt Objects: Teddy’s election projection for Ontario

I decided to make a map of my personal projection (IE not the official Blunt Objects projection) for the Ontario Election tomorrow evening. I’m not much for talking when there’s a map involved, so without further adieu;

Blunt Objects: Ipsos Gives OLP 10-point lead, supports Ekos

Wow, who would think you would see this from Ipsos Reid, on an incumbent premier who has not had the best eight year legacy attached to his name? A ten-point lead, so close to election day? That’s pretty good confirmation of momentum if I ever saw one. In my projection, this gives the Ontario Liberals ...

Accidental Deliberations: Tuesday Afternoon Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading. – Chris Selley points out the absurdity of Ontario’s Libs and PCs both running away from the idea of a coalition just as needlessly as their federal counterparts. But let’s remember that since the NDP spoke up for the idea of a coalition federally, the Libs were entirely ...

Blunt Objects: Ekos – OLP – 37.8, PCPO 30.6, ONDP 22.7

Ah, good ol’ Ekos – just when you needed a new spin thrown your way. The Liberal lead over the Progressive Conservatives appears to be solidifying as the parties approach the Oct. 6 election, according to an EKOS Research poll released to iPolitics Monday. … “Certainly, the Liberals are in the lead, and I think ...

Runesmith's Canadian Content: Taking Attendance

An interesting pattern began emerging during the Federal Election this past spring. At forums, debates, and all-candidates meetings across the country, Conservative Party candidates were simply not showing up. There was always some excuse, of course – although the over-use of the “prior commitment” was making some wonder if there was perhaps a new species ...

Runesmith's Canadian Content: Taking Attendance

An interesting pattern began emerging during the Federal Election this past spring. At forums, debates, and all-candidates meetings across the country, Conservative Party candidates were simply not showing up. There was always some excuse, of course – although the over-use of the “prior commitment” was making some wonder if there was perhaps a new species ...

Runesmith's Canadian Content: Taking Attendance

An interesting pattern began emerging during the Federal Election this past spring. At forums, debates, and all-candidates meetings across the country, Conservative Party candidates were simply not showing up. There was always some excuse, of course – although the over-use of the “prior commitment” was making some wonder if there was perhaps a new species ...

Blunt Objects: This is Pre-Debate Ontario

Pre-debate Ontario has the Ontario Liberals sitting with a minority government, down 21 seats; the Hudak PCs win 37 seats, up 11; and the Horwath NDP win 20, up 10. At this point in the game, it looks pretty good for Premier McGuinty and co., especially considering the dire straits they were in before. And ...

Blunt Objects: Ontario Debate Live"Blogging"

Follow along http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/23/ontario-leaders-debate548.html I will be commenting for all the Live”Blogging” so that you, our readers, can contribute along!

Blunt Objects: Poll Update – Abacus, Ekos, and the Debates

There’s two new polls out for the Ontario election, both showing different results. First up, everyone’s favourite pollster, EKOS Research, puts the race at a low 3.5% spread between the Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, 34.9% for the OLP and 31.4% for the PCs. The NDP sit at a comfortably high 24.7%, while the Greens ...

Accidental Deliberations: Tuesday Morning Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading. – Murray Dobbin points out the utter failure of an economic system built on suppressing wages for the general populace in the name of boosting stock values and profits for a few at the top: Flaherty insisted before and throughout the last election on moving ahead with another ...

Accidental Deliberations: Monday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material to start your week. – This blog’s current tagline highlights the importance of asking cui bono? when it comes to public policy choices. On that front, points for chutzpah to Baljit Chadha, who actually has the gall to argue that as a poor asbestos merchant he has nothing to gain by seeking public ...

Accidental Deliberations: A propos of nothing

While much of the NDP’s federal election result has been painted as the result of Jack Layton’s popularity, it’s worth noting exactly how the party results compared to some of the different measures used to track leadership preferences. In the weeks before the election, Layton repeatedly held a huge advantage over his rivals in approval ...

Blunt Objects: Angus Reid – PCs 36, OLP 32, NDP 26

Not really very different from their last poll, which was 38-31-24. However, even though it doesn’t show a drastic change like the other three (not including Abacus), it does show a tightening of the race, in practice. So, as noted, the topline numbers are 36-32-26, with the Greens at 6%. This would be good enough ...

Accidental Deliberations: Wednesday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading. – For those with a few months to kill between now and next March, now may be the time to direct a browser tab toward Alice’s NDP leadership site and start hitting “refresh”. – The Conference Board of Canada is once again warning about rising inequality, this time pointing ...