You might have caught a while back that interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose promised her party would use a “new tone” now that they were in opposition, implying the nasty personal smear attacks were a thing of the past. Apparently, Conservative MP Candice Bergen didn’t get that memo when she
Continue readingTag: nanos
Scott's DiaTribes: Election 42 kicks off. Nanos poll, Trudeau start bolsters LPC. Danielle Takacs shows why I support her.
The 42nd General Election writ was dropped yesterday, causing the 11 week campaign to officially begin. It was interesting watching Harper try to pull off an Orwellian type response to why such a long campaign, claiming that it would somehow save money for the taxpayers – while it’s generally known
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: A reprieve from Nanos for the Nervous Nellies on Liberal fortunes
There’s been more then a couple newspaper op-eds in the Star and Globe of late worrying about the Liberals and Justin Trudeau losing their mojo and declaring they need to do something to turn around sagging poll fortunes. They seem to have been basing that on their perception of one
Continue readingTrashy's World: I might sound like a broken record…
…because over and over I have said that Nanos is the ONLY pollster worth watching. Here is why (emphasis mine): Some key observations on this evening’s Ontario election: Tonight’s election results suggest that even though there was a general perception in the media that Tim Hudak won the debate with
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Wynne & OLP have (polling) momentum going into debate
… or so it would appear from the latest polling. Ekos had a 5 pt OLP lead yesterday, while Abacus had a 2 or 7 pt OLP lead (depending on their likely voter or all voter screen), and today Nanos finally enters the polling arena. The Nanos polling company has
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: More encouraging polls for the Liberals
Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes: The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: 2 sides of the polling analysis coin
Latest Nanos Poll numbers for the federal parties: LPC 36, CPC 30, NDP 25. Nik Nanos commentary on this 2 pt gain for the Liberals over the CPC was that it was to do with the Senate scandal, not Justin’s admission he smoke marijuana: Trudeau hasn’t seen a rise in
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: An early Trudeau effect in polling?
Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains: A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Brief thoughts on Bob Rae running or not running
There was a bit of a dustup online (amongst Liberals anyhow) over this story CBC broke yesterday: Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae will be permitted to run in his party’s leadership race and he is expected to enter the race, CBC News has learned…Party President Mike Crawley said a motion
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Harper and Cons reputation taking a bit of a beating – a year too late.
Two new polls out today – one from Forum Research in the Star shows the NDP ahead of the CPC by 3%.. the other by Nanos at the Globe shows the CPC ahead, but in an MOE dead heat. Pollster are going to get looked at skeptically for a bit
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Forum, Nanos Polling in Ontario Battle it Out
Two polls provincially in Ontario talk about, the first one being Nanos’ Research poll (they did one in November as well that didn’t make the radar), and the next being Forum Research. Big, big differences in these polls. More than what’s normal, anyways. Let’s start with Nanos, which gives the
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Nanos, Robocalls, and Super Tuesday
Sorry for my lack of posting the past three days – but I haven’t missed much anyways. The big thing I did miss was the recent Nanos Research poll, showing for the second time in a row, the Liberals in second place. The topline numbers (and changes from the last
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Not Another Quirky Nanos Poll….
I’m getting a bit sick of these odd Nanos polls which end up dropping the NDP lower than they should be and the Liberals higher than they should be. The topline numbers are 35.7% Con, 27.6% Lib, 25.2% NDP, 5.6% Bloc, 4.5% Grn. While one could accept the Liberal result
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Last Poll of 2011 – 36.5% Con, 28.7% NDP, 25.6% Lib
This is, of course, a lovely Nanos poll which shows the Liberals somewhat dropping from heights we shouldn’t be at in our current state to more-or-less reasonable levels, though as we’ll see, there are still some questions remaining. The topline numbers are as shown, and in terms of seats that
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Voodoo Polls Cont’d
Since last post, Abacus Data has come out with a new poll that gives the opposite of what Nik Nanos is showing, with a healthy second place position for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals. Abacus’ numbers are 40-31-18, compared to Nanos’ 35.6-27.3-28.1 the other week that I
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Nanos = Voodoo Poll?
I have huge respect for Nik Nanos and his firm, but this recent poll is just a bit much, even for a die-hard Liberal: Con – 35.6% (-1.1%)Lib – 28.1% (+4.7%)NDP – 27.3% (-2.7%) So, somehow the Liberals have managed to claw their way back up to second place in
Continue readingBlunt Objects: “Now we can confidently say there is trend in favour of Bob Rae at the current time”
Lol, what?“Nycole Turmel hasn’t really caught the imagination of voters. … She is there minding the shop but her personal numbers are not necessarily moving.” This means, however, that Mr. Rae is winning second place by “default,” Mr. …
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Two Polls Give Ontario Grits Smiles
One from Ipsos Reid and one from Nanos Research confirm the trend seen in the Harris-Decima poll that was out only a few days ago, which blew the race in Ontario wide open.First, the Ipsos Reid poll gives the Ontario Liberals the lead with 38%, with th…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Nanos Poll Shows More NDP Support, But Little Real Change Overall
In fact, one could argue that Nanos is just correcting from his last poll, which gave the Liberals a small edge as the second-place party.Nevertheless, here are the topline numbers: 39.5% Con, 33.1% NDP, 20.7% Lib, 3.4% GreenNo real change outside of t…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: The Ontario election (un)officially starts today (and it’s a horserace)
I’m fairly confident in saying that other then political junkies, not a lot of attention was paid to the Ontario election campaign by potential voters in Ontario. With Labour Day come and gone and a month left until Election Day, that officially changes.
Conveniently, we have a new provincial poll out from Nanos Research, conducted on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail, showing a tighter race. When rounded, it’s basically PC’s 35, Liberals 32, and NDP 23. Comparing to the previous Nanos poll, it appears that voters aren’t too enthralled yet. The PC’s and Liberals are both down between 5-7%, while the NDP made some gains. […]
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