Below is a recent editorial from the New York Times that does an excellent job of summarizing the failures of austerity policies. The NYTimes also published a very good analysis of how austerity measures have actually increased debt loads in many countries, instead of reducing them: “Despite Push for Austerity, European
Continue readingTag: fiscal policy
The Progressive Economics Forum: Ontario hiding savings from lower interest rates
The Ontario government Fall Economic Statement and Fiscal Review ignores and hides billions savings the province will gain from lower borrowing rates in coming years. While this statement acknowledges that borrowing rates will be considerably lower in coming years–and more than 100 basis points lower in 2014–their forecast of debt
Continue readingSong of the Watermelon: The Folly of Balanced Budget Laws in BC
The news is out. Due to declining natural gas prices, the BC Liberal government is projecting a budget deficit of $1.14 billion this year — $173 million more than expected. And while the government still insists that it plans on finding enough savings to balance next year’s (election year) budget,
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Fiscal “Crisis” In Context: Two Indicators
With all the predictions of doom and gloom coming from the austerity camp, one would think that Canada was already about to hit the famed (but never seen) “debt wall.” Before we get too carried away, however, with the scary debt stuff, consider these two indicators of the fundamental fiscal
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: GDP: Petro-Rebound Conceals Underlying Problems
The main story in today’s GDP numbers is that the oil, gas and mining industries rebounded sharply in April after being hobbled by temporary maintenance and production difficulties in February and March. While the upswing in fossil-fuel and mineral extraction was large enough to boost the overall economy, other key
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Deflating Housing Bubble Risks Recession
Seen in isolation, Finance Minister Flaherty probably did the right thing yesterday in seeking to safely deflate the housing bubble and lower the dangerous growth of household credit to a record level as a share of household income. But he did it very late in the game, and risks tipping
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Complete details of 2008-09 Bank Support
Readers of this blog will have hopefully read my report “The big banks big secret” which examines the $114 billion that Canada’s banks received during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Its major finding was that at some point three of Canada’s five big banks had received support worth more than their market capitalization,
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Canada’s Self-Imposed Crisis in Post-Secondary Education
On June 7, I gave a keynote address to the Alberta Union of Provincial Employees Education Sector Conference. My PowerPoint presentation (with full references) can be found at this link. Points I raised in the address include the following: -Canada’s economy has been growing quite steadily over the past three
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Quebec Tuition: Between a Rock and Hard Place?
In the context of student protests over Quebec tuition fees, my friend Luan Ngo has just written a very informative blog post on Quebec’s fiscal situation. While I encourage readers to read his full post, I do want to use the present space to make mention of three important points
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: PBO Strikes Again
I wanted to tip my hat to the hard working folks at the PBO for a particularly revealing Economic and Fiscal Outlook that was published today. While the PBO has more than once eaten my lunch on various issue they’ve done a superb job of looking at Canada’s economic and
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Federal Job Cuts…the Real Numbers
Thankfully the federal budget has started to fill in some of the details of its latest round of cuts. In particular, it now estimates 19,200 positions lost due to its latest round of cuts (Federal Budget 2012, pg 221). Although it is nice to have an initial estimate, this hardly
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Times they Are a Changing: The MMT Wave Begins
Take a look at the picture below. Take it in. Now scan your eyes to the far right…there, in faded blue you’ll see the initials MMT. Now zoom out. Take it in again. Notice: a few hundred people. Spending their time learning about an economic theory called Modern Monetary Theory
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Fiscal Austerity and Growth
This may come as a bit of a shock to Andrew Coyne and Jim Flaherty, but even the IMF are warning in their most recent fiscal policy update that austerity in the advanced economies is going too far, and will dampen growth. Indeed, they even suggest that too much austerity
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Coyne on Krugman and Keynes
Krugman hardly needs me to leap to his defence against Canadian economic flat earthers like Andrew Coyne, but here goes. Coyne’s latest column argues that there is a recovery underway in the US which owes nothing to Keynesian stimulus. Accordingly, “we can add America post-2008 to the long list of
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Could McGuinty’s cuts be worse than Harris?
The Ontario government’s long awaited and much discussed report of the Commission on the Reform of Ontario’s Public Services (aka, the Drummond report) was finally publicly released this afternoon. As was rumoured, the report says Ontario would need to increase program spending by no more than 0.8% per year for
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Greek Tragedy
An excellent commentary from Andrew Watt.
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: Born Again Fiscal Virgins #nlpoli #cdnpoli
Premier Kathy Dunderdale is singing the usual Tory song before contract negotiations and a provincial budget. Yes, folks, in a speech to the St. John’s Board of Trade the Premier was talking about the need to control spending. We’ve all been down this road before. Of course, the same people
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Davos Speech
The Prime Minister’s speech at Davos was, I would bet, written by Stephen Harper himself. It bore the stamp of his long standing contempt for the European welfare state. He all but said that the Europeans had brought the crisis on themselves through trying to live beyond their fiscal means: As I
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The IMF and Austerity
Today’s IMF economic update further downgrades growth projections, including here in Canada where growth in 2012 is forecast to be just 1.7%, down from the IMF’s September forecast of 1.9%. That is well below the just released Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0%, and clearly implies rising unemployment. On fiscal
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Focus of the Federal Budget Must Be Jobs, Not Cuts.
The Mark have published a pre Budget commentary from yours truly.
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