When it comes to elections in Canada, with its relatively low voting rates, age matters. Older folks vote with their feet, all the way to the polling stations, while younger folks go about their busy lives, voicing discontent but not doing anything about it. Federally, the Stephen Harper new Conservatives
Continue readingTag: ekos
Accidental Deliberations: On crowdsourcing
I’ve previously pointed out the problem with framing electoral outcomes solely in terms of which party wins the most seats. And EKOS’ polling about which single party is most likely to form government thoroughly misses that point in previewing the federal campaign in 2015. But that omission aside, EKOS’ results
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Tuesday Morning Links
This and that for your Tuesday reading. – George Monbiot reminds us that the mere fact that neoliberal economic theory has failed by any rational measure doesn’t mean there won’t still be plenty of well-funded efforts to promote it at the expense of social interests: The policies that made the
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations
The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs
Continue readingCuriosityCat: EKOS on State of Play in Canadian politics: Massive Migrations and a Lack of Love
Just in time for discussion by political junkies at their latest BBQs, EKOSon July 13 released their findings on the below surface movements in Canadian political currents. Their findings should reassure Harper (somewhat), caution Mulcair to reconsider his ‘roll of the dice, winner takes all’ approach to the next election,
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Robocon: Was the Conservative Party behind the voter suppression in the May 2011 election?
Harper’s Tories have rejected any suggestion that the voter suppression crimes committed before and on the May 2 2011 election were lead by that party. As the seven lawsuits supported by the Council of Canadians wend their way through the
Continue readingBlunt Objects: EKOS Poll Shows Little Movement
There’s very little difference between the last EKOS poll and this one, despite the robocall controversy. The topline numbers (with changes from last poll) are as follows: Con: 31.5% (+0.1) NDP: 29.2% (-0.3) Liberal: 21.7% (-3.1) Bloc: 6.0% (-0.7) Green: 8.3% (+2.2) Other: 3.3% (+1.8) The biggest change, therefore, has
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Two Polls, Two Minorities
Two polls have come to my attention which show that the situation federally and possibly in Quebec is further deteriorating towards minority governments and three-way races. First, in Quebec, the latest Leger Marketing poll shows that Francois Legault’s CAQ has dropped from the high 30’s to 33%, with the Parti
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Powerful reason why Horwath should support PR now: her party is bleeding votes
The latest EKOS poll shows one dismaying finding that Andrea Horwath should respond to if she wants to end up on Friday in a position to influence the way the province is going to be governed for the next 4 years.The EKOS poll shows substantial bleedin…
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Ekos – OLP – 37.8, PCPO 30.6, ONDP 22.7
Ah, good ol’ Ekos – just when you needed a new spin thrown your way.The Liberal lead over the Progressive Conservatives appears to be solidifying as the parties approach the Oct. 6 election, according to an EKOS Research poll released to iPolitics Mond…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: The closing days of the Ontario campaign
Only a few days left until Ontario voters get out to vote for their next provincial government, and the polls that came out on the weekend still had a neck and neck race. Ekos released a new poll this AM which seemed to indicate the Liberals were pulling away just a tad, but it still is close.
It will be interesting from my standpoint to see a) which polls were closest (online, IVR or traditional phone) and also the similarities/differences to the Ontario vote from the federal election in May, and what can be learned from that.
Also, with regards to a rumour of Harper coming to Toronto to […]
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Poll Update – Abacus, Ekos, and the Debates
There’s two new polls out for the Ontario election, both showing different results.First up, everyone’s favourite pollster, EKOS Research, puts the race at a low 3.5% spread between the Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, 34.9% for the OLP …
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Ontario leaders debate tonight is big
We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20′s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.
Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on […]
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Canadian election: Who switched parties in the last week? And why?
The EKOS survey taken after the election throws some interesting light on the Changers. The G&M article is here, and the poll results are herehttp://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/41st_election.pdf.Scott’s Diatribes deals with another face…
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: If younger voters had bothered to vote in Ontario, Harper would have lost.
There was some conventional wisdom out there in pundit land that in the last few days of the May election, the Conservatives and Harper bit of fear-mongering that the NDP might be elected to government caused right-leaning Liberals to turn and vote Conservative in order to stop this, thus causing the vote splits in Toronto and such that ensured a Harper majority.
According to a study by Ekos, however, that was not the case:
In his post-election analysis, which he presented to a polling conference in Ottawa last week, Mr. Graves says that his sample of 1,000 voters in Ontario did not find a respondent who shifted to the […]
Continue readingTories take lead, or statistical anomaly?
The latest EKOS poll, released to the CBC, show that the Conservatives are holding a 32.4% lead, with the Liberals at 28.9%. The NDP are holding 16.6% support, while the Green Party maintains 10.7% and the Bloc are at 8.9%.
Normally, the statistics wo…
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