Accidental Deliberations: Monday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material for your Monday reading. – Janet Bagnall neatly dissects the Cons’ plan for dismantling public services: The Harper government is nothing if not predictable in how it goes about dismantling a program or service. It starts by denigrating the program and the program’s beneficiaries, and telling Canadians that

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Accidental Deliberations: Sunday Morning Links

Assorted content for your weekend reading. – There’s still plenty more emerging on the Robocon election fraud scandal. The reporting combinations of McGregor/Maher and Chase/Leblanc/Mills have both discussed Elections Canada’s latest court filing showing that Con campaign officials openly discussed implementing U.S.-style vote suppression efforts – including exactly the forms

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Accidental Deliberations: Not yet satisfied

Eric highlights Environics’ polling as to how happy supporters of various parties are with last month’s federal election results. And the findings look to bode about as well as possible for the NDP’s prospects of expanding its reach over the next few years:

Conservative supporters felt very positively about the election result – and why not. Their party won a majority. Fully 82% are quite happy.But New Democratic voters aren’t as pleased as you might expect. Their party made a historic breakthrough in Quebec, won the most seats and votes in their history, and are now the Official Opposition. But only 27% of their voters are happy with the results.Though it is somewhat surprising it is as high as it is, 13% of Liberal voters and 10% of Bloc voters feel positively about what happened on May 2nd. Thirty percent of non-voters are also pleased with the result.As for having negative feelings about the election result, only 2% of Conservative voters have some regrets. That is miniscule. Surprisingly, only 21% of non-voters feel the same way (36% are, understandably, indifferent).Despite their historic outcome, fully 42% of NDP voters feel sad or fearful about the election results. And despite being reduced to third party status, only 54% of Liberal voters feel negatively. It is a majority, but you’d expect Liberals to be a little more upset, along the lines of the 73% of Bloc voters.

Now, it’s important enough that a substantial number of NDP voters were hoping for more rather than expressing satisfaction with the party’s position. After it’s surely easier to build a movement when supporters are concerned about the direction of the country and motivated to change it, rather than seeing reason to get complacent.But the level of satisfaction with the election result among the opposition parties is especially significant when paired with the NDP’s post-election polling boost. In effect, it looks like a number of the Lib voters who already looked like promising NDP targets have already made the jump – and are apparently finding a landing pad which fits their own attitudes about the election.[Edit: fixed quote.]

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Accidental Deliberations: One of these things is not like the others

One of these things just doesn’t belong. See if you can spot the difference in the following single-election results – and consider what it might mean for each party’s future strategy…

Vote Share Seats Provinces w Seats Provinces under 20% High Prov% Low Prov% Rebates
30.6% 103 8 2 42.9% 15.4% 306
25.5% 66 5 5 58.9% 3.9% 182
30.2% 103 9 1 52.5% 15.3% 283
29.6% 99 8 1 61.7% 8.8% 251

For those wondering, the parties who posted those totals are respectively the NDP in 2011, the Canadian Alliance in 2000, the Libs in 2006, and the Cons in 2004. And of course, each party served as the official opposition following the listed general election.

So let’s ask the rhetorical question: is there an obvious reason why one of those parties might have had both a glaring need to pursue a merger, and an obvious opportunity in doing so?

And conversely, is there an equally obvious reason why the other three might see fit to work from an existing national base, rather than pursuing wrenching structural changes?

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