Both Chantal Hebert and the combination of Bruce Anderson and David Coletto have written recently about the state of federal politics in Quebec, with particular emphasis on what we can expect as the Bloc Quebecois appears to crumble. With that in mind, I’ll offer a quick reminder as to one
Continue readingTag: abacus
The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Stark Numbers #nlpoli
Anyone who wants to get insight into the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador need look no further than the Abacus poll commissioned by VOCM, the first bit of which was released on Thursday. Provincial Conservatives may be running around consoling themselves with all sorts of notions but the reality
Continue readingThe Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli
A new poll by Abacus Data for VOCM shows the Liberals under Dwight ball leading the governing Conservatives in every region of Newfoundland and Labrador. According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 500 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, the NL Liberals hold a 15-point lead over
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: On phone polling vs internet panels
An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts). Why was his polling better then every other public domain
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Unsettled state of voters’ views of leaders good news for Liberals
Especially if Liberal Party members and supporters select Justin Trudeau as their new leader in 2013. Trudeau has lots of room grow and could easily eclipse a much disliked Stephen Harper, as a recent Abacus Data poll shows: Trudeau delivers … But whereas Harper is only marginally behind on favourability,
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations
The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: On potential support
Abacus’ latest federal poll includes some noteworthy data on which voters see a real prospect of shifting their preferences – and particularly on the number of voters who are willing to entirely rule out a vote for either the Cons or the NDP. In particular, Bloc and Lib supporters are
Continue readingCuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Thomas Mulcair’s worst nightmare
If Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and an election was held today, then three of Thomas Mulcair’s nightmare events would take place Firstly, and most seriously, roughly 1 in 3 NDP supporters would switch their votes to the Liberals. Secondly, the LPC and CPC
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Abacus Data Poll #AbVote – 41% WRP, 28% PC
This Abacus poll makes it the fourth poll since Ipsos Reid’s 38-38 tie to produce some major momentum for the Wildrosers by placing them ahead of the PCs, and sixth overall to produce some momentum for the Wildrosers. That means one thing: trend (basically) confirmed. The Wildrosers are on their
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Roundup
In the lead-up to tomorrow’s official debate in Halifax, the end of this week saw plenty of developments in the NDP leadership race – including both the familiar combination of endorsements, videos and policy releases from the campaigns themselves, and an increase in outside reporting that took coverage in a
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Abacus Poll: 37-28-21, and the "Bump"
Too many polls have come out this week, and I hope this will be the last one (oh, who am I kidding?). Abacus Data shows an overhyped, within-the-margin-of-error rise for the Liberals that the Globe and Mail, in all its glory, is trying to make into a big story. Meanwhile,
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Last Poll of 2011 – 36.5% Con, 28.7% NDP, 25.6% Lib
This is, of course, a lovely Nanos poll which shows the Liberals somewhat dropping from heights we shouldn’t be at in our current state to more-or-less reasonable levels, though as we’ll see, there are still some questions remaining. The topline numbers are as shown, and in terms of seats that
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Voodoo Polls Cont’d
Since last post, Abacus Data has come out with a new poll that gives the opposite of what Nik Nanos is showing, with a healthy second place position for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals. Abacus’ numbers are 40-31-18, compared to Nanos’ 35.6-27.3-28.1 the other week that I
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Saturday Morning Links
Assorted content for your weekend reading.- Abacus’ Canadian polling on the Occupy protests suggests that there’s loads of public sympathy for the view that there’s a need for change in how wealth and power is distributed – with the main concern being …
Continue readingBlunt Objects: Poll Update – Abacus, Ekos, and the Debates
There’s two new polls out for the Ontario election, both showing different results.First up, everyone’s favourite pollster, EKOS Research, puts the race at a low 3.5% spread between the Ontario Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, 34.9% for the OLP …
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: Ontario leaders debate tonight is big
We enter the Ontario leaders debate tonight with a new poll from Ekos released today showing the Liberals with a 4 point lead over the PC’s and the NDP in the mid-20′s. According to threehundredeight.com, combined with the findings of another poll release last night by Abacus (with their new polling methodology), that would lead to a bare Liberal majority.
Therefore, I would submit the pressure is on the opposition parties’ leaders to perform well. Hudak needs to do so to salvage what has been a fairly miserable campaign for him (losing a massive lead in less then 3 months to now possibly losing the election outright). Horwath on […]
Continue readingScott's DiaTribes: When pollsters go after each other.
As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:
Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere […]
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Thursday Morning Links
This and that for your Thursday reading.
– Heather Mallick highlights the dangers of the permanent unemployment which regressive politicians around the globe are so vociferously demanding in the guise of austerity:
As we fend off a double-dip recessio…
Blunt Objects: Yet Another Poll Showing The Same Thing Yet Again
Abacus data is not being known for its originality, that’s for sure (despite their “Not Your Average Pollster” claim).Their current results put the Conservatives at 38%, the NDP at 32%, the Libs at 19%, and the Greens with 6%, while the Bloc sit at 26%…
Continue readingAccidental Deliberations: Thursday Morning Links
This and that for your Thursday reading.
– Naomi Klein points out in the wake of London’s riots that there’s one kind of socially destructive looting that’s been rewarded rather than punished:
They are just about lawless kids taking advantage of a sit…