Accidental Deliberations: Saturday Morning Links

Assorted content for your weekend reading. – Naomi Klein examines how climate change has contributed to a summer of extreme weather disasters, while David Suzuki highlights how we can work with nature to respond to increased flooding. And Emily Atkin discusses the outsized damage 90 corporate behemoths have done to our climate. – Meanwhile, Abacus ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls remain discouraging for Liberals #nlpoli

Heading into their convention this weekend,  the provincial Liberals have another poll that confirms what all the other polls have said for the past six months or so. For those misled by reports about the MQO poll like CBC’s initial one, see the bit down below. Here’s what you get when you take all the ...

Accidental Deliberations: New column day

Here (via PressReader), on how the North Saskatchewan River oil spill may not lead directly to a needed reevaluation of the risks of pipelines – but a public expectation that we’ll shift away from dirty energy may be more significant in the long run. For further reading…– I’ve previously posted about Brad Wall’s response to ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Liberals have the progressive base on their side – can they keep it?

Liberals are often accused of running (a campaign) on the left and governing right(wing). but recent polling shows that so far, the voters on the progressive left have been rather happy with the Justin Trudeau Government. This article here by Eric Grenier highlights an Innovative Research Poll that shows the core groups that are considered ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Abacus – First poll 2015 #nlpoli

No surprise that the Liberals are way ahead in the latest Abacus horse race poll. No surprise the NDP have fallen and the Tories have held steady. What you need to look at to understand what this means are the results for three Abacus questions. (Read more…)

CuriosityCat: Abacus Oct 7: Liberal Surge in Ontario strengthening

Latest Abacus poll confirms surge of the Liberal Party continues in Battleground Ontario: Ontarians want a new government, that will handle the economy well, develop infrastructure, provide good governance, and act with decency. We will all get that kind of government on October 19. Vote in the advance polls (to avoid any robocalls or other ...

CuriosityCat: Abacus Oct 7: Liberal Surge in Ontario strengthening

Latest Abacus poll confirms surge of the Liberal Party continues in Battleground Ontario: Ontarians want a new government, that will handle the economy well, develop infrastructure, provide good governance, and act with decency. We will all get that kind of government on October 19. Vote in the advance polls (to avoid any robocalls or other ...

CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?

Abacus has a poll out on September 27 that has very bad news for Mulcair’s NDP. The NDP support in Quebec, its heartland, has plunged over the past week, dropping like a stone, while the other parties are ticking upwards: And this anti-Orange Wave has dragged the NDP down nationally as well: In Battleground Ontario, ...

CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?

Abacus has a poll out on September 27 that has very bad news for Mulcair’s NDP. The NDP support in Quebec, its heartland, has plunged over the past week, dropping like a stone, while the other parties are ticking upwards: And this anti-Orange Wave has dragged the NDP down nationally as well: In Battleground Ontario, ...

CuriosityCat: Mulcair & Trudeau both fishing for votes in the same size pools

But Harper is fishing in a far smaller pool, according to Abacusdata: The whole Abacusdata poll is fascinating and worth studying, and, of course, sharing with friends, colleagues and Tories. This election is one for the record books! Roll on October 19; with some 76% of Canadians wanting a change of government that day, we ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Forget that Orange Wave Thing #nlpoli

Two-thirds of respondents to the most recent Abacus-VOCM News poll said they believed the Liberal Party will win the next provincial general election. That’s an important question because recent American research suggests it is a good indication of the actual vote result than the traditional “which party will you vote for?” question. There’s another reason ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The not-so-rare leap: @abacusdata June 2015 #nlpoli

Two different polls from two different pollsters using two different polling methods have shown basically the same thing:  the New Democrats and Conservatives are duking it out for second place, both of whom remain well behind the Liberals who hold a massive lead in provincial politics. Corporate Research Associates (May) showed the Conservatives still slightly ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.

Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately declared – on the basis ...

CuriosityCat: 2015 Election: Quebec holds, Ontario rises for Liberals says Abacus poll

On guard Hat tip to BigCityLibfor pointing the way to the latest Abacus poll. The devil is in the regional breakdown, because national poll numbers are relatively useless in Canada. There are 4 big battlegrounds, with only 3 really in contention: the prairies are Tory blue;  BC is a nightmare for the two opposition parties ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Insight #nlpoli

By lunch time today, you’ll have Corporate Research Associate’s latest quarterly omnibus poll.  Odds are the overall numbers on party choice for provincial politics will be in line with all the other polls we’ve seen over the last while. What sets Abacus Data’s poll released on Tuesday is that Abacus asked a bunch of questions ...

Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

The NDP’s biggest problem electorally isn’t a question of policy or values or leadership or connecting with voters or just about anything else perennially brought up to explain their difficulties in the polls both federally and provincially across Canada. Their big problem comes down to one stat: only 7% of Canadians think they will win ...

Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

The NDP’s biggest problem electorally isn’t a question of policy or values or leadership or connecting with voters or just about anything else perennially brought up to explain their difficulties in the polls both federally and provincially across Canada. Their big problem comes down to one stat: only 7% of Canadians think they will win ...

Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

The NDP’s biggest problem electorally isn’t a question of policy or values or leadership or connecting with voters or just about anything else perennially brought up to explain their difficulties in the polls both federally and provincially across Canada. Their big problem comes down to one stat: only 7% of Canadians think they will win ...

Accidental Deliberations: On political evolution

Both Chantal Hebert and the combination of Bruce Anderson and David Coletto have written recently about the state of federal politics in Quebec, with particular emphasis on what we can expect as the Bloc Quebecois appears to crumble. With that in mind, I’ll offer a quick reminder as to one of the more subtle factors ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Stark Numbers #nlpoli

Anyone who wants to get insight into the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador need look no further than the Abacus poll commissioned by VOCM, the first bit of which was released on Thursday. Provincial Conservatives may be running around consoling themselves with all sorts of notions but the reality of their position is starkly ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

A new poll by Abacus Data for VOCM shows the Liberals under Dwight ball leading the governing Conservatives in every region of Newfoundland and Labrador. According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 500 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, the NL Liberals hold a 15-point lead over the PC Party among committed ...

Scott's DiaTribes: On phone polling vs internet panels

An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts). Why was his polling better then every other public domain pollster? He says it’s because ...

CuriosityCat: Unsettled state of voters’ views of leaders good news for Liberals

Especially if Liberal Party members and supporters select Justin Trudeau as their new leader in 2013. Trudeau has lots of room grow and could easily eclipse a much disliked Stephen Harper, as a recent Abacus Data poll shows: Trudeau delivers … But whereas Harper is only marginally behind on favourability, his unfavourability is considerably higher: ...

CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations

The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs him now. These are calls ...

Accidental Deliberations: On potential support

Abacus’ latest federal poll includes some noteworthy data on which voters see a real prospect of shifting their preferences – and particularly on the number of voters who are willing to entirely rule out a vote for either the Cons or the NDP. In particular, Bloc and Lib supporters are roughly twice as likely to ...