CuriosityCat: The Signal Oct 6: Tories 132 seats; Liberals 132 seats; NDP 71 seats

Trudeau has led his Liberal Party to a forecasted number of MPs equal to those that Harper’s tired Conservatives might elect: 132 MPs each.
With neither the CPC nor the LPC having a majority of seats (170 MPs), this result would mean the end of the Harper government, and a new Liberal Party government, with Justin Trudeau as prime minister, and Harper as leader of the Opposition.

Now, if the Liberals claw one extra seat from the CPC or NDP, then Harper will resign as PM on the evening of October 19, as he promised Peter Mansbridge in the CBC interview, and Trudeau would take over as PM on October 20.
Then we can start righting the many wrongs that Harper has inflicted on our democracy, and set in motion the commission to replace the FPTP system of electing our MPs with a more democratic one (hopefully a modified proportional representation system).
So, everyone: vote in the advance polls (just in case robocalls start up again), take someone younger with you to vote as well, and vote strategically so as to unseat a sitting Conservative MP in your riding, if you have one.
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CuriosityCat: Another 4 LPC seats and Harper resigns on October 19

The Poll Tracker for October 5 shows the steady surge of Liberal Party votes, and translates the various polls into a national seat projection.
Harper told Peter Mansbridge that if the Conservatives won one seat less than any other party, he would immediately resign as prime minister.
With two weeks to go, the Liberals only need four (that’s right! 4!) more seats to reach the Harper Resignation total:

While you are at the site, check the seat projections and polls for Battlegrounds BC and Ontario.
And help make Harper’s decision easier by voting in the advance poll; take someone younger than you along to vote as well.
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CuriosityCat: Who is the Change Agent in Canada’s election? It’s no contest, really

Mulcair has only two weeks to reverse a dramatic reversal in the minds of voters of just who, in an election where about 70% of the voters want a change, bears the Change mantel.
Harper is an also-ran in the Who is the best change agent stakes (offering less of the present is not a recipe for change).
Mulcair started the race with the best chance to represent the change that most voters want to take place on October 19. But somewhere on the road his chariot to victory lost a wheel or two and veered off to the right of the road. Round about the same time that Mulcair decided on a read my lips: no deficits economic Inaction Plan.
Here’s the bad news for Mulcair, from a CBC/Innovation poll:

Unless a miracle happens, Mulcair has run out of time.
And for Harper, unless a miracle happens, he has run out of time to change voters wishes for something new, into a wish to have him back in power as leader of a majority government.
The Change Agent Thunderdome

What a race! Three men enter the Thunderdome, and now two of the men need a miracle for them to stagger out of it alive.
We are heading for a very welcome change of government on October 20, and for substantive electoral reform before April 2017.
So kiss Goodbye to the archaic first past the post system of choosing our MPs, and say Hello to a far more democratic system.
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CuriosityCat: Trudeau’s Message to Conservative Supporters


Today Justin Trudeau had a message for supporters of the Conservative Party that should resonate all the way up to the close of the polls on election night October 19:

But I want you to keep something in mind. Always.

In the end, we are all Canadians.

Conservatives are not our enemies. They’re our neighbours.

They want what’s best for their country, just like we do. They want safe communities and a growing economy. They want better jobs and more opportunities for their kids. They want their country to stand for something in the world, with the tenacity to solve big problems.

We don’t need to convince them to leave the Conservative Party. We just need to show how Stephen Harper’s Party has left them…

What kind of country do you want to build?

What kind of Canada do you want to leave to your kids?

Do you want Stephen Harper’s unambitious vision of a small, fearful country? One where we are divided against one another and suspicious of the world.

Or do you want a confident, positive vision of Canada? One that is clear-eyed about the challenges we face, but optimistic that we have all that we need to meet them head on.

I believe in this country. I love it with all my heart. And I know you do too.

See: our campaign has never been about me. It has never been about the Liberal Party. It has always been about Canadians.

Once Harper resigns as prime minister on October 20, then Conservative supporters can start considering what type of leader they want for their party, and the dialogue can begin.

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CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed!  Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends.
Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results:

And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec and BC (my underlining):
The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that, regionally:
  • The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with 52.1 per cent support, and in Ontario with 44 per cent support.
  • The Conservatives lead in the Prairies, with 51.6 per cent support.
  • In British Columbia, there is a tight race between the NDP (34.9 per cent) and the Liberals (34.3 per cent).
  • The NDP lead in Quebec with 32.9 per cent, but support continues to slide.
And here’s the movement of voters in Quebec towards the Liberals (the beginning of a Red Tide in that important province):

Remember to vote in advance polls if you can!  And take a friend along with you, especially a younger voter.
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CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos


Here’s the Nanos latest poll:

Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking
  • National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally.
  • Battleground OntarioThere has been a noticeable movement in one of the key battlegrounds in favour of the Liberals over the past two evenings of tracking. Support for the Liberals in battleground Ontario stands at 43.6% while the Conservatives are at 33.8%, the NDP at 18.6% and the Greens at 4.0%.

That surge in Ontario is a large one; seems many voters there have decided that the best choice for managing the economy is Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
And they are moving away from Thomas Read my lips: no deficits Mulcair, and from Stephen No Hope & No Vision Harper.
Add to this the dramatic change in Quebec, where the Orange Surge has turned into the Orange Crash, and we are speedily heading for a Liberal Party majority government on October 19.
That leaves less than 17 days before Stephen Harper resigns as prime minister on October 20, and tootles over to the Governor General to tell him this.
And by April 2017, we will have passed a law to remove the FPTP system of electing our MPs, and replaced it with one that better reflects modern democracies. Before that date, the chances are very high that we will be going to the polls in a referendum, to choose between two alternative methods of electing our MPs: an alternative vote system and a modified proportional representation system, all fleshed out in the commission that the LPC has committed to appoint asap after the election.
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CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government


If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well.
As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have 202 MPs versus Harper’s Swan Song Singers 134.
That’s a whopping 68 more MPs than Harper will have, and Harper will be far short of the magical 170 seats he needs for a majority, and to survive as prime minister:
And the Ontario results are good, too:
Plus the BC results:
Spread the word about The Signal!
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CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government


Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19.
The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it:
To gain a more precise picture of the voting landscape across the country, the Star has teamed with Vox Pop Labs, an independent research organization, to utilize their election forecasting tool, named The Signal.

Faith in pollsters’ findings has been tested in recent years, both home and abroad. After failed efforts to predict the Liberals win in the B.C. election of 2013, the Star asked “Why do pollsters keep getting it wrong?” Across the pond, British outlets pondered the same question only this year, when forecasters’ projections for the general election woefully undervalued support for David Cameron’s Conservative Party. 

So what signal is The Signal sending us about the election?
That we are headed for a change of government. The national results Vox translates into the following seats:

And the forecasted votes are:

The important thing to note is this: The total of Liberal and NDP seats is 199, a huge margin over the projected seats of 137 for Harper’s ‘new’ Conservatives.


This means that the Tories are not going to win a majority (they need 170 seats for that, and are far from that magical number). And, given the outright rejection by both Mulcair and Trudeau of any chance that their parties will prop up a minority Conservative government after the election, Harper will fall from power on October 20 or soon thereafter.
The Liberals, with more seats than the NDP, will then be given the chance by the Governor General to try to form a minority government that will enjoy the confidence of the House.
And within 18 months – by April 2017 – we will have a new electoral system, replacing the current archaic FPTP system.
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