Evidence continues to mount regarding Canada’s lousy economic trajectory, and there is now a pretty broad consensus among Canadian economists that the economy was likely in recession in the first half of the year. That’s not a sure thing, of course: we won’t know until September 1 if second quarter
Continue readingAuthor: Jim Stanford
The Progressive Economics Forum: Economics for Everyone: Second Edition
This week marks the official publication release of the second edition of Economics for Everyone: A Short Guide to the Economics of Capitalism. In this blog I explain my motivations in writing the book, and promoting critical economic literacy more generally; the commentary was originally published by Pluto Books (the
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Judging the Odds for an “Election Recession”
Canada’s first-quarter GDP report was not just “atrocious,” as predicted by Stephen Poloz. It was downright negative: total real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 0.6% (fastest pace of decline since the 2008-09 recession). Nominal GDP fell faster (annualized rate of 3%), as deflation took hold across the broader
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Guest Blog from Kim Pollock: Stagnation Without End
We are pleased to present this guest commentary from Kim Pollock, a former union researcher based in B.C. and Saskatchewan. Now retired, Kim is investigating various aspects of Canada’s economic performance. A longer version of this paper will be presented by him at the upcoming Society for Socialist Studies meetings in
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: My “Top Five” Most Outrageous Things About This Budget
With a document whose very timing, let alone content, was so transparently politicized and manipulative, it’s hard to even know where to start. Among the many galling, short-sighted, and ultimately destructive components of this federal budget, here are 5 that stand out in my view: 1. Timing. At a time
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Primer on Investor-State Dispute Settlement
In light of the latest NAFTA Chapter 11 decision to go against Canada, I was asked to put together some background notes for our Unifor leadership on this bizarre quasi-judicial kangaroo courtsystem. Here they are, in case they are useful for anyone else getting up to speed on the whole
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Thinking Through the Fall-Out of Lower Oil Prices
Canada’s economic and fiscal debates in recent months have been dominated by the possible impacts of the sudden fall in oil prices since last autumn on growth, employment, and fiscal balances. Finance Minister Joe Oliver delayed the budget, the Bank of Canada shocked markets with a rate cut, and Alberta
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Confusing “Deficit Elimination” with “Prosperity”
The banner headline across the top of the front page of the national Globe and Mail edition caught my eye Saturday morning: “How B.C. became a ‘have’ province..” Wow, I thought to myself, that is quite something (and with not a single LNG plant on the economic horizon!), and so
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Don’t Play Tories’ Game on “Risk” of Deficit
Acres of newsprint have been devoted in recent weeks to the possibility that lower oil prices might push the federal budget back into a deficit position. As I argue in my column in today’s Globe and Mail, this drama is mostly political theatre — and progressives should be cautious about
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Five Good Economic Developments in 2014
Every year has its ups and downs, of course. But there’s something about New Year’s that makes one naturally want to emphasize the positive. So here is my personal list of 5 positive economic developments from the year past — both globally and right here at home — that warmed this
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Good Results from Latin American Elections (Guest Post by Paul Pugh)
Paul Pugh is a long-time progressive activist, trade unionist, and city councillor from Thuunder Bay, Ont., who has guest-written previous posts for us on economic policies in Uruguay. Here is a short report from Paul on the outcome of recent crucial elections in Latin America. Thank you Paul, and congratulations
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Minimum Wages and Employment Outcomes
Last week my Unifor colleague Jordan Brennan and I published a study through the CCPA Ontario office examining the historical empirical evidence regarding the link between changes in minimum wages and employment outcomes. We find there is no robust evidence in Canadian historical data that increases in real minimum wages cause
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Troubled Economics, and the Curious Politics, of the Canada-Korea Trade Deal
There are many motivations to explain the Harper government’s rush to sign free trade deals. Since coming to power, the Conservatives have implemented 6 FTAs, have “concluded” 2 more (with Korea and, purportedly, with the EU), and have fully 14 other FTA negotiations on the go. To some extent Conservatives actually
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Revised LFS Numbers Don’t Change the Big Picture
What a rough week it’s been over at Statistics Canada. It’s a world-renowned statistical agency — though its lustre has been tarnished in recent years by budget cuts, cancelled data programs and series, and the nonsense of the Harper government’s libertarian crusade against the long form census. The problems this
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Important Challenges to Investor-State Dispute-Settlement
In my many years documenting and critiquing the overblown claims of free trade proponents about the supposedly self-regulating efficiency-promoting mutually-benefiting effects of globalization, I’ve encountered some real doozies. (My Ph.D. dissertation consisted of a critique of the theoretical and empirical basis of neoclassical CGE trade models, and the construction of
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Benjamin Zycher’s Eight-Year Itch
The controversy regarding the mathematical errors in the Ontario PCs’ “million jobs plan” went viral last week, after a critical mass of economists weighed in to confirm that the party had indeed badly misinterpreted the findings (by as much as 8 times over) of their own consultants’ studies. This sparked
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: More on Conference Board Model of Corporate Tax Cuts
Further to my post yesterday about how the Ontario PCs have vastly overstated their own consultants’ estimates of the number of jobs produced by their various policy proposals (including lower corporate taxes, lower electricity prices, interprovincial free trade, and regulatory reduction), some have asked me about precisesly how the Conference Board
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Major Numerical Problems in Tim Hudak’s Jobs Plan
When Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak kicked off the current election campaign with a plan to “create a million new jobs” in Ontario, he tried to dress up the platform launch with a certain scientific respectability. The party released a “technical backgrounder” showing the precise composition of the million new jobs,
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Jason Kenney, TFWs, and Canada’s Services Trade
When he announced the sudden moratorium on new Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW) in the restaurant industry, Employment and Social Development Minister Jason Kenney tried to reconcile this dramatic about-face with his government’s long-standing support for the whole idea of migrant guest-workers. So while strongly criticizing a few particular restaurants for their
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: More on Demographics, Demand, and Canada’s Falling Employment Rate
My post last week on the continuing decline in the employment rate in Canada (to below 61.5% in April, barely higher than the low point reached in the 2008-09 recession) has sparked some continuing discussion about the role of demographic change in explaining that decline (as opposed to a shortage
Continue reading