Here’s one guess at how the NDP leadership balloting could play out… 1ST BALLOT Mulcair – 31-33% Nash – 18-20% Cullen – 14-16% Dewar – 13-15% Topp – 12-14% Ashton – 3-5% Singh – 1-3% Saganash – 0-2% 2ND BALLOT Mulcair 34-36% Nash 21-24% Cullen 16-18% Dewar 13-15% Topp 9-11%
Continue readingAuthor: Greg Morrow
Broadbent Comments About Mulcair Betray NDP Principles
Given that Thomas Mulcair the perceived front-runner in the NDP leadership race, it’s not surprising that rival campaigns would attack him. It is perhaps a bit more surprising when a former Leader and one for whom a lot people (myself included) have respect, Ed Broadbent, does the attacking. In effect,
Continue readingMulcair the best choice for NDP leader
Seeing the extreme positions taken by Republican candidates in the U.S. gives us a clue as to the typical dynamic of leadership races –- first, having to win over a party’s base who are more dogmatic and than the electorate as a whole, then, to appeal to the broader electorate,
Continue readingDemocraticSPACE Projects Liberal Majority in Ontario
Here are DemocraticSPACE’s average projections for the Ontario election. Keep in mind that there is actually a range of outcomes (the #s below represent the average). Riding-by-riding projections are here: http://t.co/mx0ECWc9. Province-Wide Liberal – 60 seats (40.0%) PC – 31 seats (34.2%) NDP – 16 seats (21.0%) Green – 0 seats (3.5%) Northern Ontario Liberal […]
Continue readingOntario Election Seat Projections
see http://bit.ly/rtk0SE for riding-by-riding estimates
Liberal – 47 seats (35.8%)
PC – 40 seats (34.4%)
NDP – 20 seats (24.3%)
Green – 0 seats (4.2%)
GO TO OUR CANADA 2011 WEBSITE!
FYI, I will re-directing the blog to the Canada 2011 Election site until the end of the campaign. The direct link is http://democraticspace.com/canada2011. The blog will return after the election…
Continue readingPRE-WRIT, CONSERVATIVES IN CONTROL
Here is the pre-writ baseline projection for Friday, March 25… CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 25) CANADA CPC – avg 158 seats (39.6%) – low 137 (38.1%), high 174 (41.1%) LPC – avg 69 (26.5%) – low 57 (25.0%), high 93 (28.0%) BQ – avg 49 (10.2%) – low 43 (8.7%), high 54 (11.7%) NDP – […]
Continue readingPRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – GREENS
GREEN (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 0 >>> absolute minimum = 0 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 0 >>> likely low = 0 seats LEANING (>> current projection = 0 seats CLOSE (>> likely high = 0 […]
Continue readingPRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – BLOC QUEBECOIS
BLOC QUEBECOIS (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 40 >>> absolute minimum = 40 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 3 >>> likely low = 43 seats LEANING (>> current average = 49 seats CLOSE (>> likely high = […]
Continue readingPRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – NDP
NDP (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 17 >>> absolute minimum = 17 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 8 >>> likely low = 25 seats LEANING (>> current projection = 32 seats CLOSE (>> likely high = 40 […]
Continue readingPRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – LIBERALS
LIBERAL (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 42 >>> absolute minimum = 42 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 15 >>> likely low = 57 seats LEANING (>> current projection = 69 seats CLOSE (>> likely high = 92 […]
Continue readingPRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – CONSERVATIVES
CONSERVATIVE (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 123 >>> absolute minimum = 123 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 14 >>> likely low = 137 seats LEANING (>> current projection = 158 seats CLOSE (>> likely high = 174 […]
Continue readingMarch 20 Seat Projections
New Ekos, Ipsos and Leger polls in the past week, so here are the latest projections — Conservatives hovering right around majority territory… CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 20) CANADA CPC – avg 155 seats (39.6%) – low 134 (38.1%), high 171 (41.1%) LPC – avg 71 (26.4%) – low 60 (24.9%), high 89 (27.9%) BQ […]
Continue readingCONSERVATIVES CLOSE TO MAJORITY TERRITORY
With talk of a spring election heating up, I thought it would be useful to check where things currently stand — as you can see from the number below, the Conservatives are within striking distance of a majority (which requires at least 155 seats)… CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 9) CANADA CPC – avg 152 seats […]
Continue readingWhat’s Up Doc?
FYI, my apologies for the dearth of postings on DS for the last while. Apart from a pretty quiet Canadian political scene, I haven’t had much spare time of late — with teaching and research but also the arrival of these little ones (twin girls, born 1/1/11) has kept my wife and I pretty busy. […]
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