Author: buckets

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic Voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Central Nova
Strategic voting in Central Nova

The riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference.  Its long-time MP, Peter MacKay, is not standing for re-election.

MacKay had won with over 50% of the vote, and his decision to retire from politics hurts the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.

How much it has hurt can be seen in the new figures, where Eric Grenier sees 40% as the high estimate for Conservative support.
Some local polling also suggest the Cons are vulnerable here:
Polls in Central Nova
Given that the polls were taken only a few days apart, but have quite different results, the results should probably be interpreted as a sign of Conservative vulnerability rather than a basis for confidence.  
Nevertheless, there is every possibility that Central Nova is a riding that is ripe for the picking if a handful of NDP and Green voters support the Liberals.

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal

Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com is a great resource for strategic voters, as this map illustrates. Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk The riding in question is Haldimand-Norfolk on the shores of Lake Erie, which includes  Caledonia, Dunnville, Hagersville, Jarvis and Cayuga in Haldimand and  Simcoe and Port Dover in Norfolk. Grenier’s figures are helpful because they project

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal

Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com is a great resource for strategic voters, as this map illustrates. Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk The riding in question is Haldimand-Norfolk on the shores of Lake Erie, which includes  Caledonia, Dunnville, Hagersville, Jarvis and Cayuga in Haldimand and  Simcoe and Port Dover in Norfolk. Grenier’s figures are helpful because they project

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal

Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com is a great resource for strategic voters, as this map illustrates.

Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk
Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk

The riding in question is Haldimand-Norfolk on the shores of Lake Erie, which includes  Caledonia, Dunnville, Hagersville, Jarvis and Cayuga in Haldimand and  Simcoe and Port Dover in Norfolk.

Grenier’s figures are helpful because they project what he estimates on the basis of the most recent polls and how they might factor into different ridings.

Here his best guess is that the Conservatives will take the riding by a couple percent.  A modicum of strategic voting here, however, could push the Liberals over the victory line.  Strategic voters should therefore support the Liberals here.

Some recent posts:

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Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP

    A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Nanaimo-Ladysmith should vote NDP.  Here are their poll results:
    Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith
    Poll in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

    The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

    Some of their other recommendations:

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP

    The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. Some of their other recommendations: Strategic voting in Calgary Centre: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona: vote NDP Strategic

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

    Strategic tactical voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni

    Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

    The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

    The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

    By itself this should mean that strategic voters should support the NDP.

    As it happens, a recent poll conducted by Insights West (Sept. 13) confirms that. It found that support in the riding at: Con. 33%, NDP 39%, Lib. 13%, Green 12%.

    Update, Oct. 15.  A new poll for BC from Insights West (pdf) confirms that strategic voters in Courtney-Alberni should vote NDP:

    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    Polls in Courtney-Alberni

    Again it is fairly clear that the NDP have the best choice for strategic voters who want to avoid vote splitting and defeat the Conservatives.

    Votetogether.ca is expected to make a call for strategic voting in Courney-Alberni soon.

    Update. A new poll (Oct. 13) shows that strategic voters should support the NDP.

    Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni
    New poll in Courtney-Alberni

    Recent posts:

    For a full list of my calls, see here.

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    Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

    Strategic voting in Oshawa
    Strategic voting in Oshawa

    The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It’s boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

    The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they’d be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

    There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up.  If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against that tide and vote NDP, there is a good prospect of defeating the Conservatives in Oshawa.

    Some recent posts:

    For an overview of strategic voting posts, see here.
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