The federal government has launched consultations on EI premium setting. This provides the opportunity to shift from a very ad hoc system to one that is more fair to workers, and more economically rational. The current worker premium is $1.78 per $100 of insured earnings and the employer premium is $2.49 per $100, adding to […]
Continue readingAuthor: Andrew Jackson
The Progressive Economics Forum: Outlook Darkens as Budget Debate Begins
Allow me to indulge myself just this once. Almost exactly one month ago I wrote a post arguing that the Bank of Canada was being too optimistic about our economic prospects in the July Monetary Policy Report . Today, both the Governor (and Finance Minister Flaherty) conceded to the House of Commons Finance Committee that […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: On Balancing the Budget
Andrew Watt has written an especially cogent piece on why the balanced budget rule proposed for the Euro area by Merkel and Sarkozy is a very, very bad idea. It also makes relevant reading for Canadians. Andrew points out (1) that fiscal rules have to take into account overall balances and that the public sector […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Market Mayhem
The wild swings in the North American financial markets this week serve as yet another reminder of the weakness of any linkage between levels and changes in financial asset values and levels and changes in real economic variables. This is apparent for both bonds and equities. In the case of the US and Canada, the rise […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Stimulus vs Public Investment
A column by Stiglitz in the Financial Times makes what I think is an important point. The current debate over fiscal policy for the US, Europe and Canada is often characterized in the media as one between advocates of higher deficits from Keynesian style stimulus measures, and advocates of lower deficits through public sector austerity. […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The New Phase of the Crisis
The Great Recession was followed by an anaemic recovery in the advanced economies, which threatens to be followed by a double dip or worse now that the fiscal stimulus measures of 2009 and 2010 have been succeeded by austerity programs. Now we face a new financial crisis, or at least a stock market correction of […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Social Europe Journal
For those of you out there who have not seen it, I recommend Social Europe Journal. There is a lot of good progressive economic commentary by leading European economists and policy types of a social democratic persuasion, as well as frequent commentary from Stiglitz, Reich and other US economists. Some good recent columns and blog […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: More on Public Sector Austerity in Canada
A short addendum to my previous post: I checked the most recent IMF projections in the June, 2011 Update to the Fiscal Monitor. Table 1 provides estimates of changes in the general government government cyclically adjusted balance in percent of potential GDP. Basically changes are the result of discretionary changes in fiscal policy rather than […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Today’s Job Numbers
Analysis from my colleague Sylvain Schetagne: A decreasing unemployment rate is not always a sign of a strong labour market. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.4% to 7.2% observed between June and July 2011 is mainly due to Canadians leaving the labour market, not to their finding jobs. In July, the number of […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Public Sector Austerity: Why is Canada Leading the Way?
The major economic problem faced by Canadians is a very slow recovery and weak job market, not government deficits or rising debt. But public spending cuts at the federal and provincial level will make the real problem even worse. And, government spending cuts in Canada seem set to be even greater than in other advanced […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Myth of Expansionary Austerity
As the US and Europe turn from stimulus to fiscal austerity, claims are heard that spending cuts actually stimulate economic growth. That is the argument heard, not just from the Republicans in the US Congress, but also from the Obama Administration who have pretty much stopped listening to even mainstream macro-economists. And it is the argument […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Expanding the Canada Pension Plan
The case for expanding benefits under the CPP as a needed response to the crisis of private pensions continues to win expert support – even as the financial industry and small business lobbies continue to fight real pension reform tooth and nail. The centre-right Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) have published interesting and useful […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Bank Moves to Hit the Ball
The release of today’s Monetary Policy Report from the Bank of Canada follows yesterday’s announcement of no change in interest rates, the latest in a long series. It reminds me of an English County cricket match in which a batsman is politely applauded – “very well not played, sir!” – for doing absolutely nothing other than […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: International Journal of Labour Research
The new issue of the International Journal of Labour Research (edited by Canada’s own Pierre la Liberte ) entitled “Crisis: Causes, Prospects and Alternatives” is now available. The issue takes a critical look at policies that led to the 2007-08 crisis and considers alternatives to orthodox policies both North and South. It features articles by […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Underground Economy and Business Tax Evasion
Statscan have produced interesting and important new estimates of the upper bound size of the “underground” or “non observed” economy, putting it at a seemingly modest 2.2% of GDP in 2008. (Some of this is already included in GDP which is adjusted to take into account some hidden and unreported economic activity.) The 2.2% estimate […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Unions and Inequality
An important paper by Bruce Western and Jake Rosenfeld which is forthcoming in the American Journal of Sociology finds that the decline in private sector union density in the US (from 34% to 8% for men, and from 16% to 6% for women) explains one fifth to one third of the increase in inequality […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Best Books on the Economic Crisis
With the Summer reading season at hand, here is a short list – in no particular order – of the best books I have read over the last couple of years on the roots and implications of the Great Recession – essential reading for all progressive economists. John Cassidy. How Markets Fail: The Logic of […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: Who Holds the Family Purse-Strings?
Statscan have released an interesting paper, “The Income Management Strategies of Older Couples in Canada.” It looks at who controls the family finances in couples with one partner aged 45 and over. (They used the age cut off because a special question was added to the General Social Survey which is restricted to that age […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: The Kids Are Not All Right
As is well-known, young people are still bearing the brunt of the recession. The employment rate for youth aged 15-24 last month was 55.6%, well down from 60.3% back before the recession in September, 2008 due to an increase in unemployment and an increase in those not looking for work. And the proportion of youth […]
Continue readingThe Progressive Economics Forum: World Bank Joint Ventures With JP Morgan
(The following was sent by ITUC Washington representative Peter Bakvis and deserves wider distribution.) In partnership with Wall Street investment bank JP Morgan, the World Bank has launched a food commodity hedging facility that is supposed to provide “$4 billion in protection from volatile food prices for farmers, food producers, and consumers in developing countries”. […]
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