Catch 22 candidate picks unchanged by NDP surge
“NDP moves into tie with Liberals”, screamed headlines in newspapers across the country.
The New Democrats and the Liberals were in a statistical tie moving into the last week of the May 2nd election campaign.
“These polls from Angus-Reid, EKOS, Forum, Ipsos-Reid and Nanos add more fuel to the fire as to whether this will be a historic election for the NDP and a historic defeat for the Liberals” reported the ThreeHundredEight website, which tracks polls on a daily basis.
The startling news caught people off guard. The back-room politicos, journalists and the general public are scratching their heads trying to figure out what these poll results really mean.
NDP support appears to be “soft”, but if it does firm up, could Jack Layton really catch Michael Ignatieff on election day? Will Layton’s strong performance in both of the televised debates reward him across the country?
And what does this mean for strategic voting, was the question on the minds of the number crunchers at Catch 22.
Catch 22 chairman Gary Shaul spent an entire morning going over their target ridings and candidate recommendations research data and came away with some very important conclusions.
Shaul concluded that Catch 22 is firmly on track and on target to hold down the election of Harperites and that they should keep hard at it.
“With the exception of a couple of ridings we’re still reviewing, every one of our recommendations remains sound”, reported Shaul.
“This is all about an NDP surge and whether NDP candidates have moved ahead of candidates from other parties we’re recommending. It hasn’t happened. The NDP did not place second in 2008 in any of the ridings where we’re recommending Liberals or Bloc candidates.”
With only three or four exceptions, the NDP did not place second in any of Catch 22’s target ridings in the last four elections. Except for the “too close to call” ridings, they were a distant third (sometimes fourth) in almost every race in 2008.
“This shows that our initial methodology was sound and can stand up to scrutiny despite any surges,” said Shaul.
For example, in Kitchener-Waterloo, in the last election, the Conservatives defeated Liberal MP Andrew Telegdi by just 17 votes or 0.1%. However, the third place finisher, the NDP, was a full 21.3% behind Telegdi. In Vancouver Island North, the Conservatives defeated NDP MP Catherine Bell by just 4.3% of the vote with the Liberal candidate 37% behind Bell.
These examples are typical of the decision-making process which Catch 22 has used to select its recommended candidates in the ridings.
Catch 22 believes that massive strategic voting in key ridings across the country is the best way for Canadians to guarantee that Harper does not get a majority.