Okay, just for fun I’m going to do this. I don’t have some crazy scientific method of figuring it out, I just go with my gut feeling – which has varying results. Interestingly you can see from my post here which was made on Election Day in 2008 that the estimates I made for the office pool at the UofA Students’ Union were only off by two seats, but the predictions I made on election day were way off.
I’m basing this off of current polling, specifically regional based polling but also taking into account that I think the NDP’s will climb slightly over the weekend on on election day we’ll see a virtual tie between NDP and Conservative votes. The Conservatives will still win more because they’ll dominate in Western Canada, especially Alberta. The NDP is going to make huge gains in Quebec as predicted by almost everyone, with huge gains also happening in Ontario and British Columbia with moderate gains in Saskatchewan (winning a total of 1-3 seats) and Alberta (wining a total of 2-3 seats).
I’m not doing regional breakdowns (or at least I’m not telling you what I got) I’m just going to give you my national total.
Also I’m predicting a short-lived small Conservative minority that will be defeated on the budget followed by an NDP minority government (or a small chance of a NDP-Liberal coalition even taking over in the first place). Either way I predict Jack Layton will be the Prime Minister, whether he serves as opposition leader for a couple months prior to it is another question.
Anyways, my completely unscientific seat count projections are:
Conservative: 128
NDP: 110
Liberals: 56
NDP: 110
Liberals: 56
Bloc: 13
Independent: 1 (in Quebec)
Independent: 1 (in Quebec)
Green: 0
