CONSERVATIVE (as of 25 Mar)
SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 123
>>> absolute minimum = 123 seats
STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 14
>>> likely low = 137 seats
LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 21
>>> current projection = 158 seats
CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 16
>>> likely high = 174 seats
POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind) = 10
>>> absolute maximum = 184 seats
(123) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead)
AB Calgary Centre
AB Calgary Centre-North
AB Calgary East
AB Calgary Northeast
AB Calgary-Nose Hill
AB Calgary Southeast
AB Calgary Southwest
AB Calgary West
AB Crowfoot
AB Edmonton Centre
AB Edmonton East
AB Edmonton-Leduc
AB Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
AB Edmonton-St. Albert
AB Edmonton-Sherwood Park
AB Edmonton-Spruce Grove
AB Fort McMurray-Athabasca
AB Lethbridge
AB Macleod
AB Medicine Hat
AB Peace River
AB Red Deer
AB Vegreville-Wainright
AB Westlock-St. Paul
AB Wetaskiwin
AB Wild Rose
AB Yellowhead
(27)
BC Abbotsford
BC Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
BC Cariboo-Prince George
BC Delta-Richmond East
BC Fleetwood-Port Kells
BC Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
BC Kelowna-Lake Country
BC Kootenay-Columbia
BC Langley
BC Nanaimo-Alberni
BC Okanagan-Coquihalla
BC Okanagan-Shuswap
BC Prince George-Peace River
BC Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
BC Port Moody-Westwood-P Coquitlam
BC Richmond
BC South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
BC West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-STSC
(18)
MB Brandon-Souris
MB Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
MB Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
MB Kildonan-St. Paul
MB Portage-Lisgar
MB Provencher
MB Selkirk-Interlake
(7)
NB Fredericton
NB Fundy Royal
NB New Brunswick Southwest
NB Tobique-Mactaquac
(4)
NS Central Nova
NS Cumberland-Colchester-Musquo. Valley
NS South Shore-St. Margaret’s
(3)
ON Ancaster-Dundas-Flamsborough-Westdale
ON Barrie
ON Brant
ON Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
ON Burlington
ON Carlton-Mississippi Mills
ON Cambridge
ON Chatham-Kent-Essex
ON Dufferin-Caledon
ON Durham
ON Elgin-Middlesex-London
ON Essex
ON Carleton-Mississippi Mills
ON Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
ON Haldimand-Norfolk
ON Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
ON Halton
ON Huron-Bruce
ON Kenora
ON Kitchener-Conestoga
ON Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
ON Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington
ON Leeds-Grenville
ON Nepean-Carleton
ON Newmarket-Aurora
ON Niagara Falls
ON Niagara West-Glanbrook
ON Oakville
ON Oshawa
ON Ottawa West-Nepean
ON Oxford
ON Parry Sound-Muskoka
ON Perth-Wellington
ON Peterborough
ON Prince Edward-Hastings
ON Nepean-Carleton
ON Northumberland-Quinte West
ON Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
ON Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
ON Simcoe-Grey
ON Simcoe North
ON Thornhill
ON Sarnia-Lambton
ON St. Catharines
ON Wellington-Halton Hills
ON Whitby-Oshawa
ON York-Simcoe
(47)
QC Beauce
QC Louis-Saint-Laurent
QC Lévis-Bellechasse
QC Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
QC Mégantic-L’Érable
(5)
SK Battlefords-Lloydminster
SK Blackstrap
SK Cypress Hills-Grasslands
SK Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
SK Palliser
SK Prince Albert
SK Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
SK Regina-Qu’Appelle
SK Saskatoon-Humboldt
SK Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
SK Souris-Moose Mountain
SK Yorkton-Melville
(12)
(14) STRONG (5-10 pt ahead)
BC Saanich-Gulf Islands
BC Vancouver Island North
MB Saint Boniface
MB Winnipeg South
NB Miramichi
NB Saint John
NS West Nova
NU Nunavut
ON London West
ON Ottawa-Orleans
QC Charlesbourg-Haute Saint-Charles
QC Jonquiere-Alma
QC Pontiac
SK Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
(21) LEANING (< 5 pt ahead)
BC Burnaby-Douglas
BC Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca
BC New Westminster-Coquitlam
BC North Vancouver
BC Surrey North
NB Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
ON Brampton-Springdale
ON Brampton West
ON Guelph
ON Kitchener Centre
ON Kitchener-Waterloo
ON Mississauga-Erindale
ON Mississauga South
ON Oak Ridges-Markham
ON Sault Ste. Marie
ON Vaughan
ON Welland
PE Egmont
PE Malpeque
QC Beauport-Limoilou
QC Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-RDL
(16) CLOSE (< 5 pts behind)
AB Edmonton-Strathcona
BC Nanaimo-Cowichan
BC Vancouver South
MB Elmwood-Transcona
NL Avalon
ON Ajax-Pickering
ON Bramalea-Gore-Malton
ON Don Valley West
ON Eglinton-Lawrence
ON Kingston & The Islands
ON London North Centre
ON Sudbury
ON Thunder Bay-Superior
ON York Centre
QC Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
YT Western Arctic
(10) POSSIBLE (5-10 pts behind)
BC B.C. Southern Interior
BC Newton-North Delta
BC Skeena-Bulkley Valley
BC Vancouver Centre
BC Vancouver-Quadra
MB Winnipeg South Centre
NB Madawaska-Restigouche
ON Hamilton Mountain
ON London-Fanshawe
QC Chicoutimi-Le Fjord