With the NDP membership in Edmonton-Sherwood Park nominating Mike Scott, an active member of CUPE Local 30 as their candidate for the next federal election (which could be happening as early as next week) it appears that all candidates are in place in the riding that hosted what was the second closest race in Alberta in 2008 just behind Linda Duncan’s victory over Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton-Strathcona
Scott will be facing incumbent Conservative MP Tim Uppal, returning candidates Rick Szostak (Liberal), James Ford (independent) and Green Party candidate Chris Valee. A little more than a year ago I posted a summary of the 2008 vote, which I’m going to quote here rather than rehashing something I’ve already posted:
Uppal was elected in 2008 to replace outgoing Edmonton-Sherwood Park MP Ken Epp, by a very small margin, at least by Alberta standards having won 35.84% of the vote verses Independent (conservative) candidate James Ford’s 32.45% of the vote, a difference of 1 668 votes. Ford threw his hat in the ring after many members of the local Conservative Riding Association were upset by the rules surrounding the nomination process for the nomination Uppal won. Many Conservative Party member’s, including former Edmonton-Sherwood Park board members ended up working on James Ford’s campaign and/or openly supporting him. Even former MP Ken Epp was spotted at James Ford’s election night events.
Some interesting things the election showed about the vote in Edmonton-Sherwood Park is that even with the Conservative vote almost evenly between two candidates (Ken Epp won 63% in 2006) the Conservative still won a plurality of the votes. The election also showed the influence of grassroots organizing in the riding, verses the influence of spending money. It’s my understanding the Ford had a very strong grassroots organization campaigning for him during the campaign, so in spite of spending $34,907, less than half of Uppal’s $85,943, Ford managed to finish extremely close to Uppal. Another interesting thing to note is that NDP candidate Brian LaBell spent $110 but finished with 12.89% of the vote, besting Liberal Rick Szostak, who spent $24,297 and Green candidate Nina Erfani who spent $3,678 and won 7.48% of the vote.
It will be interesting to see if James Ford manages to hold or build on the votes that he won in 2008. While voters in the riding may have been upset enough over the nomination process that saw Uppal selected as the Conservative candidate I’m not sure if voters are still as upset about this now as they were in 2008. While it may seem natural for voters to simply just choose another “conservative” candidate if they become disenchanted with the incumbent they may look for other alternatives when they realize the only real difference between the two candidates is in their views on the legitimacy of a past nomination process. I also think some of those who supported Ford were not committed conservative supporters, or regular conservative supporters and were voting for the candidate they felt had the best chance of defeating the conservative, and these voters might also be looking for another alternative, especially in a future election where Ford may not run. With Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal brand continuing to prove to be unpopular with Albertans voters may be looking for another alternative.
As I mentioned then 2008 NDP Candidate Brian LaBelle secured 12.89% of the vote, finishing ahead of both the Liberal and Green candidates in spite of spending a small fraction of what the Liberal candidate used. LaBelle achieved this in spite of not taking time off work to campaign as well as boycotting the Sherwood Park election forum (though he did attend other forums in the riding) and not even having campaign signs. This shows that the riding does have a core NDP vote that can be built upon. Interestingly as recently as the 2000 election nearby Edmonton-Strathcona saw only 14.78% of voters choosing the NDP candidate, but with hard work on the part of the membership and candidates this increased in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 which saw Linda Duncan win the seat. Considering parts of Edmonton-Sherwood Park have been represented provincially by the NDP in recent years as well as changing demographics in the riding it is not completely unrealistic to think that there could one day in the not too distant future be an NDP MP representing the riding if the membership and candidates work on building the riding not only during the next few elections but between the elections as well.
